Hyperliquid Token Trades 22% Under September Peak Near $77

22% Below the September Record

About 22% sits between Hyperliquid's HYPE token and the record near $98 it printed on September 23, with the coin changing hands between $76 and $77 on Saturday. Our live reading places HYPE at $76.94, up 2.8% over the past day, so the discount to the high is intact even as the immediate tape steadies. The platform behind the token runs a layer-1 blockchain purpose-built for perpetual futures and spot trading through a decentralized exchange, settling flow on a fully on-chain order book rather than an off-chain matching engine. It still owns the derivatives lead: aggregated open-interest data puts Hyperliquid's cumulative open position near $11 billion, a 55% to 57% share of tracked decentralized perps. Daily volume has swung between $4.6 billion and $7.3 billion, and 30-day turnover runs close to $200 billion to $209 billion, scale most venues never approach. At the weekend HYPE's market capitalization stood near $19.38 billion, the tenth-largest among tracked crypto assets. Only a handful of protocols pair a top-ten token with a working revenue engine, and that pairing is exactly what the current bear case attacks. Figures compiled by research firm Castle Labs put cumulative protocol revenue above $1.4 billion, with roughly 97% to 99% of eligible net fees historically routed into token purchases through the Assistance Fund, the protocol's on-chain repurchase vehicle, which has tied up about 48 million HYPE. Reserve yields add a second pool of buying power on top of fee flow. The question confronting traders is whether a protocol that has earned more than $1 billion can outrun sharpening competition, cooling derivatives appetite and fresh supply all at once.

Rivals Take RWA Share as Unlocks Near

Competition is taking the largest bite out of the story. An analysis shared by market researcher Lorenzo on X estimates that Hyperliquid's share of real-world-asset perpetuals volume has fallen from about 80% in July to roughly 26%. Centralized platforms led by Binance and OKX together collect about 64% of that volume as they expand into tokenized stocks and commodities. Decentralized challengers Lighter, Aster and Variational chase the same flow with products and fee schedules that look increasingly alike. The whole sector has cooled: leverage is lower, trading incentives have thinned and speculative appetite has faded since the unusually active stretch of 2025, when the bull market pulled volume to records. Commentary has turned sharper too. Arthur Hayes has questioned whether HYPE can outperform other crypto assets, staking a $150 call against Multicoin Capital's $319. Other critics have branded the exchange's move into prediction markets, a field Polymarket dominates, a disappointing flop. Positioning tells a similarly cautious tale, with the whale known as BOOMER holding $30.55 million in shorts on HYPE across five positions. Supply is the deeper worry. Core contributors control roughly 23.8% of the maximum supply, on vesting schedules that stretch into 2027 and 2028, and some monthly calendars show releases approaching 9 million to 10 million tokens, though actual distribution and immediately tradable amounts may differ. Only about 22% of the maximum supply circulates today, so dilution is no small consideration. Buybacks create constant demand, but they lean on activity: when volume falls, fees fall, repurchases shrink and absorbing new supply gets harder. The bull case leans on breadth. Three spot HYPE ETFs carry $303.5 million in cumulative net inflows, though a recent session flipped to a $7.34 million net outflow, and treasury vehicle Hyperliquid Strategies reportedly holds tens of millions of tokens. New lines of business in real-world assets, prediction markets, HyperEVM and developer infrastructure offer revenue beyond core derivatives.

@LorenzoARK · X post

Estimates.

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Between $75 and $83

Our Hyperliquid technical analysis frames how narrow the trade has become: support at $75.14 carries the strongest rating on the board at 91/100, while resistance at $82.79 scores 87/100, and spot at $76.94 sits just above the floor with little cleared ground above. HYPE perps funding reads 0.0039% and open interest stands at $1.86 billion, a neutral carry that matches the sideways trend call and an RSI near 34. The line that matters is $75: as long as buyers defend it, the discount to the September record stays a consolidation, but a daily close above $83 would reopen the recovery case toward the highs.