James Check Says Bitcoin (BTC) Volatility at 25.2% Is the Bull Case

Volatility Falls to 25.2%

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility has fallen to levels last seen in summer 2023, and Checkonchain founder James Check argues that the calm is now the asset's strongest bull case. One-month realized volatility, a gauge of how sharply the Bitcoin (BTC) price actually moved over the past 30 days, as opposed to what options markets expect, dropped to 25.2%, per the weekly on-chain update. On only about 5% of days since 2015 has the market traded more quietly. Check, a former Glassnode analyst, set out the argument on the Honest Money Show on October 27. His claim is that Bitcoin has left its speculative youth behind. “It's going to be normal, guys. That is the most bullish thing that could possibly happen to Bitcoin,” he said. Boring, in his framing, is not an insult but a milestone: an asset that behaves normally can sit inside mandates that a speculative asset cannot. The maturation argument has circulated for years among supporters of Bitcoin maximalism; the difference now is that on-chain data backs it. The yearly volatility band, the range within which price swings have typically stayed, has narrowed from roughly 55–78% in mid-2022 to about 30–52%. The latest drawdown fits the same pattern. From a peak of $126,000 in October 2025, the market fell 54% to $58,379 on June 30, a shallower bear market than either earlier cycle in the comparison.

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Weekly on-chain update.

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Check ties the higher floor to falling existential risk. The market bottomed near $60,000 rather than $40,000, he said, because fewer investors now expect Bitcoin (BTC) to fail. Edward Wu, head of research at BloFin, has argued the same logic points to less severe crashes ahead.

JPMorgan's 10-Year Bitcoin Forecast

Wall Street, though, still treats volatility as the main obstacle. JPMorgan Asset Management added Bitcoin to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the bank's annual 10-to-15-year outlook, on October 19. The document's first Bitcoin return range projects 10% a year, ahead of US large caps at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%. The recognition stopped at the forecast: JPMorgan kept Bitcoin out of its model portfolios, citing unstable correlations and 55% historical volatility, roughly triple that of stocks and gold. The bank said Bitcoin's role could grow if volatility falls and correlations stabilize. On that stated condition, the newest reading already clears the bar, since 25.2% sits below half of the 55% figure. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan disputed the inputs. In a public post on October 20, he joked that institutions ignore an asset, then laugh at it, then fight it, then add it to their long-term assumptions and predict it will be the next decade's best performer. Check frames the allocation math in similar terms: even a 2% average allocation across model portfolios would pull an enormous pool of capital, large when measured against Bitcoin's market cap. Demand through the regulated channel has so far been modest, with BlackRock's IBIT leading Bitcoin ETFs to a $17.2 million net inflow, so any portfolio shift would land on a thin base for the broader Bitcoin market.

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Public post on October 20.

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Our reading: the decisive number is the gap between the 25.2% realized reading and the 55% assumption the LTCMA still carries. If realized volatility stays near current levels, JPMorgan's own condition for model-portfolio inclusion comes into view, and Check's 2% allocation scenario stops being theoretical. The path there is not clear of sellers. Long-term holders who bought between $85,000 and $118,000 may sell into any recovery toward $85,000, which would cap how fast the grind can run. Check expects the quiet phase to last until the market clears $100,000, above which headlines pull speculative money back in. Levels for that move sit in our Bitcoin technical analysis. For now, the spread between a 25.2% reading and a 55% assumption is the number that decides whether the allocation door opens.