Jeremy Siegel Says Trump Pressure Stopped a Fed Hike, Bitcoin (BTC) in Focus

Siegel: Politics Is Overriding the Data

Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton finance professor and long-running market commentator, argues that the Federal Reserve would already be moving to raise interest rates if political considerations were not in the way. In his reading, pressure from the 2026 US midterm elections and from President Donald Trump is what is keeping a hike off the table. The claim lands immediately after a far stronger-than-expected August jobs report, and it frames this month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting as a politically loaded event rather than a purely data-driven one. Trump amplified the tension in a post on Truth Social, threatening to halt trade with countries running surpluses against the United States unless the Fed cuts rates — a demand he has repeated for months and one he framed in all caps: “We should have the LOWEST INTEREST RATES of any country in the World ... CUT INTEREST RATES OR I WILL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WHERE WE HAVE A DEFICIT.” Siegel also pointed to money-supply growth as the deeper inflation concern: M2 has expanded roughly 10% since the brief US–Iran conflict that ended in June, a pace he called excessive. He noted that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh flagged money supply as a key metric in his Jackson Hole address last month, yet Warsh has given no signal that a hike is coming. Siegel's view is that if the Fed did act, the negative market reaction would be brief, with traders rewarding the central bank for defending its inflation-fighting credibility as long as tariff effects stay contained.

August Payrolls Reshape FOMC Bets

The labor-market print underneath this debate is unusually strong. The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, more than triple the recent monthly average, while unemployment held steady at 4.1% and wage growth ran at 3.1% year over year. Combined revisions added another 55,000 jobs to June and July, and labor-force participation rose to 61.6%. Siegel characterizes this as a supply-driven labor market — more people entering the workforce — rather than an overheating one, but derivatives markets have moved regardless: traders have shifted their bets toward a rate hike over a cut for this month's FOMC meeting. That is a sharp reversal from expectations following July's weak payrolls report. The next catalysts are already scheduled: producer and consumer price index reports land Thursday and Friday of this week, and they should settle whether the hawkish repricing holds. For digital assets, the stakes are direct. A repricing of the rate path tightens liquidity conditions that crypto has historically tracked, and Bitcoin (BTC) — changing hands near $78,850 at the time of writing — remains the most rate-sensitive large-cap exposure in the asset class. Any surprise in this week's inflation data could transmit into crypto pricing within hours, not days. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

Risk Appetite Holds Near $79K

COINOTAG's aggregate market data shows investors are not pricing the political standoff as a shock. Our Fear and Greed Index sits at 69/100 (Greed), BTC accounts for 68.2% of COINOTAG-tracked market cap, and total tracked market cap stands near $2.32 trillion. Bitcoin holding the $79K area suggests traders are waiting on the UVXY ETF-tracked volatility channel rather than front-running a hike. Until CPI prints, expect thin conviction and modest slippage across majors.