Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Warns Bitcoin (BTC) 26% August Rally May Be Ending

Warsh Tells G20 the Easy-Money Era Is Over

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has thrown a direct challenge at the macro narrative behind the Bitcoin (BTC) rally, telling the world's finance ministers and central bankers at the Group of 20 meeting in Asheville, North Carolina on Monday that the era of cheap money that lifted risk assets is finished. Roughly 100 days into his tenure at the Fed, Warsh retired the framework economists long used to justify near-zero borrowing costs — a global saving glut chasing too few productive projects — arguing that today's economy looks nothing like the secular stagnation they once feared. “It wasn't so long ago ... when economists and policymakers were speaking of secular stagnation and a global saving glut,” he said, in remarks published on the Fed's own site. Capital is now pouring into artificial intelligence rather than sitting idle, he added, and he cannot call current conditions tight while inflation still runs at 3.7% a year. For crypto holders, the implication is stark. Investors bought the leading proof-of-work asset through August largely as a hedge against a weakening dollar, helping drive its roughly 26% monthly gain — the kind of extension long-cycle readers of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart recognize as late-stage. Warsh sketches the opposite world: stronger growth lifts interest rates, savers get paid to wait — and Bitcoin pays nothing. The market has already flinched once. Both gold and Bitcoin retreated after his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, where he first made the same case, and the wider Bitcoin macro picture now hinges on whether yields keep climbing into a seasonally risky September — with Bitcoin's big institutional week at TOKEN2049 Singapore still ahead. If Warsh is right, the dollar-weakness trade that carried BTC through August loses its engine.

Bessent's $4 Billion Buybacks Meet a 19-Year Yield High

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, seated beside Warsh at Monday's panel, is running the opposite experiment in real time. On August 19, he doubled the size of the Treasury's bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation — the government repurchasing its own long-term debt — a move critics read as an attempt to push borrowing costs down. Bessent denies that intent outright. “I don't think I can change the equilibrium price. My job is to slow things down ... and make sure that the market doesn't get disorderly,” he said, with the program's parameters set out in the official Treasury announcement. Bond traders are not taking the reassurance at face value: the 30-year Treasury yield reached about 5.26% the same day, its highest in 19 years, while the 10-year surged to 4.76%. The dispute even has a familiar cast. Stanley Druckenmiller — the investor who ran the 1992 bet that broke the Bank of England, when Bessent worked at Soros Fund Management — argues that Britain was then defending a price it could not hold, and says the same mistake is being repeated now. Bessent addressed the row directly on Monday, saying he had spoken with Druckenmiller since the op-ed ran and suggesting the article's timing had cost his former mentor money in the market. The practical takeaway: fiscal and monetary policy are pulling in opposite directions simultaneously — a Treasury adding demand for its own debt while the Fed chair argues rates should be higher, not lower. That tug-of-war is what reprices the long end, and it lands on an asset class where hard-asset demand, of the kind behind Strive's $143M Bitcoin purchase, did much of the August work, even as institutional plumbing like ICE's tokenized securities push keeps building underneath. Whether a long-term HODL strategy survives a regime where savers are paid to wait is now the central macro question for the asset. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

$80,427 Resistance Caps the Uptrend

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $80,427 resistance at 89/100, driven by the confluence of R3, Fibonacci 0.000, Donchian Upper and the swing high, with spot at $78,856 and a 0.04% daily gain. The nearest support, $78,027, scores 84/100 from Fibo 0.114, LVN, Ichimoku Tenkan and a MACD cross. RSI at 71.28 with a bullish MACD signals momentum, and derivatives add ballast — funding at 0.0043%, open interest at $15.58 billion and a 1.08 long/short ratio — while Fear & Greed reads 62, in Greed. A daily close above $80,427 extends the uptrend toward $85,888; losing $78,027, with the stronger $74,255 shelf (87/100) beneath it, invalidates the bullish thesis. Notably, this push is derivatives-led rather than spot ETF flow-driven.