Killa Expects a Higher Low Above $74,000 After Bitcoin (BTC) Weekend Break

Thin Order Books Over the Weekend

Crypto analyst Killa spends his market hours reading order book structure around key levels, and his weekend reading puts the latest break of Bitcoin's lows in a different light. The Bitcoin (BTC) price was struggling near $80,000 when the lows gave way, and Killa argued the timing told the real story. The break came on a weekend, when bid and ask queues thin out and price is easiest to move, the kind of environment where a single crypto whale can push a market. In his post on the weekend break, he wrote that the move was staged when order books were thin and much of the market was away from screens. Sentiment, he noted, flipped almost instantly, with calls for targets 5% to 10% lower spreading as soon as the lows went. He sees the same script the market ran twice before: near $62,000 and again around $74,000, the crowd fixed on further downside and price rebounded before reaching the levels everyone expected. Both references came from earlier stretches of the same market, and in each case the move stopped well short of what the crowd projected. Calls like those test the conviction of anyone trying to HODL through a weekend flush. A second post frames the current structure against the 2023 bull market, when Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of its range, held the former high as support and kept printing higher lows. Killa argues the same pattern is forming now, and that the next higher low would land above $74,000. An earlier post went further and argued that Bitcoin would not trade below $80,000 again. His summary of the setup is blunt: the uptrend is still very strong, and the question for the final week of Uptober, the market's nickname for October's seasonal strength, is whether the existing range holds, not whether another leg down follows.

@KillaXBT · X post

His post on the weekend break.

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The Midterm Election Curse

Ali Charts, another analyst who publishes cycle statistics on X, put the bear case on the record. In his post on the midterm record, he laid out what he calls the Bitcoin (BTC) midterm election curse. Around the previous four US midterm election cycles, Bitcoin fell 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018 and 27% in 2022. Four consecutive cycles of significant downside, in his wording, with no exception among them. The drawdowns also shrank every time, from 72% in 2010 to 27% in 2022. The 27% episode unfolded with Bitcoin about a year below its all-time high of November 2021. The midterms fall on November 3, and Ali Charts published the table just over a week before the vote, offering the dataset as a warning that the historical weakness around the election could repeat. The four-year spacing between contests matches the cadence that separates each Bitcoin halving, one reason cycle analysts track both clocks. The spread between the largest and the smallest decline is 45 percentage points, wide enough that the dataset describes a tendency rather than a fixed schedule. His numbers and Killa's chart work answer different questions, though. Killa reads short-term structure and seller exhaustion inside the current range; Ali Charts reads a pattern that has shaped the Bitcoin (BTC) market across sixteen years of election cycles. Neither dataset confirms the other. Killa's structure says nothing about the weeks after the vote, and the midterm table says nothing about whether the current range breaks first. A strong finish to Uptober would not erase the midterm record, and the midterm record alone does not guarantee a drop after November 3.

@alicharts · X post

His post on the midterm record.

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Two Clocks Into November 3

Both calls will be tested inside the same two-week window, and the near-term variable is the range itself. If sell pressure is exhausted and the $80,000 area is recovered, Killa's rebound scenario gains force, and our Bitcoin technical analysis page tracks the range boundaries as the levels that decide it. A separate COINOTAG analysis covered Glassnode's $81,500 ETF cost basis support, a level inside the zone Killa defends. Longer-cycle frameworks such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart give the drawdowns context but do not move the November 3 date. Killa has a direct interest in the rebound he published, having staked his public chart record on it, while Ali Charts' dataset flags the election window as the stretch where four prior cycles bit hardest.