Mike McGlone Says Bitcoin (BTC) Rollover From $100,000 Plateau May Signal Deflation

The 50-Week Average Rolls Over

A bearish turn in Bitcoin (BTC) may precede declines in United States equities and commodities, according to a market analysis published on November 14 by Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Writing as the Bitcoin price extended its retreat from the levels above $100,000 reached in 2025, he argued that the asset led risk assets into inflation and may now lead them into deflation, potentially after 2026. The analysis lists Bitcoin's bearish turn and rich United States equity valuations as the principal risks, and it adds widening gold volatility, rising Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy constraints as factors that raise the odds of a broader correction across markets. In a post on X, McGlone wrote that signs Bitcoin “rose too far above $100,000” in 2025 “may have broader macroeconomic implications,” and the same 50-week graphic shows the market rolling over from an extended plateau in a pattern he likens to the bear markets of 2018 and 2022. He treats the 2025 surge itself as possibly excessive, a diagnosis with implications well beyond digital assets if the pattern holds. What separates this setup from 2018 and 2022, he noted, is that the S&P 500, the Bloomberg Commodity metals total return subindex and copper have not yet printed matching downtrends. McGlone, who has covered the asset since its 2009 emergence as the first major proof-of-work network, framed the open question directly: whether today's weakness warns that other assets will follow or proves a temporary signal in an otherwise intact market. He tied the arrival of rate-hike expectations to the possible end of the inflation run, the wealth effect and elevated risk-asset prices, and argued that a record as a leading indicator for risk assets since 2009 gives the bearish turn macro weight across the wider Bitcoin market.

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Stock Valuations, Gold Volatility and Yields

McGlone's caution on equities rests on a valuation ratio he treats as stretched. United States stock market capitalization stands at roughly 2.5 times gross domestic product, and if the ratio holds through year-end it would mark the highest year-end level since 1928. In his assessment, even a modest dip in share prices could enlarge reversal pressure across financial markets, because Fed policy constraints and elevated Treasury yields would compound the move. Gold adds a second stress point. Its annual volatility runs about 2.1 times that of the S&P 500, the highest reading since before the global financial crisis. Gold and silver staged record rallies after Donald Trump began his second term in 2025, and McGlone warned that the aftereffects of that unusual surge in a disinflationary dollar environment could persist for a long stretch. He attached both a level and a horizon to the metal: gold could fall from its first-quarter peak near $5,600 an ounce back to initial support around $4,000, with its distance above the 60-month moving average the widest since 1980, a year whose gold high stood unbroken until 2007. Rates enter the same picture. The 5-year Treasury yield moved above 5% in October, and holding there through year-end would produce the highest such year-end level since 1999. McGlone left room for both the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) to decline, flagging a possible 2025 peak in the GLD-to-TLT ratio, and he reads both the metal and long-dated bonds as vulnerable in that scenario. His inflation comparison closes the argument: consumer prices rose near 15% in 1980 against 3.7% now, and after four decades of disinflation he sees deflation as the plausible next phase beyond 2026.

What Would Confirm the Rollover

For our desk, the call's weight lies in its cross-market construction rather than in any single Bitcoin (BTC) reading: the thesis only holds if equities, copper and the metals complex confirm the rollover the 50-week chart already shows. That construction flatters the core Bitcoin Maximalism argument that the asset leads the cycle, and it sharpens the choice for holders weighing whether to HODL through the transition or treat late-cycle strength as exit liquidity for earlier buyers. The size of the warning is best measured from where each market starts: Bitcoin from a plateau far above $100,000, gold from a $5,600 quarterly peak and equities from 2.5 times GDP. Readers tracking levels can follow our Bitcoin technical analysis coverage as the confirmation or rebuttal plays out.