Doctor Profit Warns of Large Monero (XMR) Liquidation Event at $287M Open Interest

Trader Doctor Profit has warned of a potentially severe Monero (XMR) liquidation event, arguing in a post on X published on Wednesday that never before in the coin's history has open interest run this high. Aggregated derivatives data puts the total value of still-open XMR contracts near $287 million, and he described that stock of leverage as a record pile of positions left open and unsettled, primed for forced exits if the price turns against them. Open interest tracks the value of perpetual futures and dated derivatives that remain unsettled; it swells as traders borrow to hold positions and can accelerate selling once those positions unwind. The dataset behind the warning only partly supports the record framing, though. In dollar terms, open interest previously spiked near $305 million in mid-January and then topped $320 million between late August and September, so today's reading sits below both peaks. Dollar-based figures also rise mechanically as the token climbs. Adjusted for price, the present book equals about 496,000 Monero (XMR), which exceeds the roughly 400,000 XMR open at January's peak but trails the September high. The warning lands while the Monero price trades near $598 on our live reading, about 2% lower over 24 hours; it had slipped to $578, down 4.3% on the day, earlier in the session. In short, the leveraged book built around privacy coin Monero is historically large by coin count, yet the dollar reading is not unprecedented, and forced selling has not begun. A liquidation episode of the kind he describes occurs when falling prices force over-leveraged positions to close automatically, converting unrealized losses into market sales.

@DrProfitCrypto · X post

A post on X.

View on X

January Crash, Double Top and the $514 Neckline

January is the precedent the trader reaches for, and the historical record explains why. Monero (XMR) jumped from about $459 on January 10 to nearly $783 by January 14, a 70% advance in four days that pulled the open-interest spike with it. The unwind that followed was brutal: by February 6, roughly 23 days after the top, the token traded near $286, about 63% below that peak. The present structure, however, differs from January's in two ways. That leverage piled in during a vertical squeeze, while the current advance has been gradual, from about $378 in early August to $605 on October 20, an advance that rode a broader rotation into privacy coins. We tracked the same trend when the token topped $558 on privacy-coin demand. Forced selling is also thin so far, with derivatives data recording only about $338,000 in XMR liquidations over the past 24 hours, nowhere near cascade scale. Technicals add a second caution. The daily perpetual chart shows a potential double top, the first peak near $636 in late September and the second near $628 on October 20. Both highs were rejected with long upper wicks, and volume on the second peak ran lighter than on the first, a sign of weakening buyer conviction. The neckline sits at $514.13, a level that held as support on October 10; the pattern stays unconfirmed until a daily close below it, roughly 11% under the price prevailing when the pattern was flagged. A confirmed break would project a measured move to $421.65, former resistance from May and June, while a recovery above $636 would invalidate the setup altogether. If the pattern confirms, the same data that flagged the leverage would turn from background risk into active fuel, since closing cascades feed on the very positions now stacked near the highs.

Our own derivatives reading tempers the alarm without dismissing it. Our aggregate, which covers a narrower universe than the headline dataset, shows open interest of $137 million, and the perp funding rate sits at just 0.0024%, meaning longs pay little to keep positions on and the book is not aggressively tilted one way. Momentum agrees: RSI reads 38.3 with a bearish MACD signal inside a downtrend, so the tape is soft but not distressed. In practice the liquidation scenario needs a trigger, and the chart names one: a daily close below the $514.13 neckline with this much leverage still open. Readers tracking the levels can follow our Monero technical analysis for updated readings.