Murad Says Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Cycle Hasn't Begun as ETF Inflows Hit $526.7M

Murad's Cycle Call

If the call is right, the biggest part of this market's advance still lies ahead. Murad, the memecoin investor whose cycle calls draw a wide following, argued in an October 20 post on X that the Bitcoin (BTC) bull cycle has yet to begin, writing “The Crypto Bull Cycle hasn’t even begun yet.” The statement carried no timeline, no price target and no supporting market data. Nothing in it defined what would count as the start of a cycle, which leaves the claim without a checkable marker. Engagement gave the claim reach: the post drew roughly 66,000 views, 1,500 likes, 240 reposts and 329 replies when captured. If the market followed the script the wording implies, the cycle's largest gains would sit in front of holders rather than behind them, and entries near current levels would be early rather than late. That is the consequence the claim invites, though Murad attached no level, date or dataset to it. Cycle talk in this market usually anchors to the four-year schedule set by the Bitcoin halving, and the post stepped into that debate without committing to a date. The Bitcoin price sat near $82,000 when Murad wrote, down 1.2% over 24 hours at $81,730.70 earlier on October 20 after retreating from nearly $83,000. Levels tracked in Bitcoin technical analysis put recovery targets at $82,587 and $83,457 on the 4-hour chart, with potential support at $81,144 and $80,000. Market maker Wintermute had earlier framed a harsher floor with its warning of a slide to $70,000. The call arrived one day after the strongest institutional buying session in weeks, a timing detail that shapes how the statement reads in front of the tape.

@MustStopMurad · X post

An October 20 post on X.

View on X

The $526.7 Million Inflow Day

The buying behind the call is measurable. Farside Investors' daily flow table recorded $526.7 million in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF products on October 19, after $228.4 million in net withdrawals across the five preceding trading sessions. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed $665.2 million in subscriptions, the fund's biggest daily inflow since October 2025. Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale's GBTC $54.9 million, while the remaining funds in the table recorded no net flows. Redemptions at the two losing funds absorbed part of the money entering the group, which is why IBIT's subscriptions exceeded the day's net total. October had accumulated $614.7 million in cumulative net withdrawals through October 16, and the single session cut that shortfall to $88 million through October 19, more than offsetting the prior week on its own. Farside's October 20 row still contained missing fund entries when checked, so the zero it displayed was not a completed session. The backdrop for the product class is widening too: FINMA has approved Switzerland's first Bitcoin ETF open to retail investors. Positioning told a thinner story. Glassnode's October 19 Market Pulse, whose measurement window closed before the inflow landed, reported that selling had eased in the week to October 18 while spot and ETF demand stayed weak. Futures open interest slipped from $36.5 billion to $36.4 billion, and long-side funding payments rose from $1.1 million to $1.6 million, a move the firm read as renewed willingness to pay for bullish exposure. Perpetual cumulative volume delta improved from negative $891.1 million to negative $562.7 million, yet aggressive sellers still outweighed buyers. Spot cumulative volume delta worsened, moving from negative $67 million to negative $83.6 million, which Glassnode tied to continued aggressive selling on centralized exchanges. On-chain fees and transfer volume each fell about 10%, active addresses held steady, and options skew kept pricing downside protection with implied volatility above realized.

Seven Rebounds, Four Breakdowns

What holds whether the call lands or not is the record. Binance Research's rebound study supplies the base rates: across seven episodes from 2011 to 2023 in which Bitcoin (BTC) closed at least 40% above its cycle low while remaining at least 25% below its prior record, four of the five signals that followed drawdowns of 30% to 38% went on to break their previous lows within 43 days, and the July 2021 case held. Only the two signals that followed deeper declines, 75.5% in April 2019 and 67.1% in January 2023, reached new highs without first breaking their lows. Binance itself called the sample a base rate rather than a forecast. A call with no timeline and no target sits outside that test. For holders running a HODL approach, what carries information either way is the measured record: a $526.7 million inflow day against a spot tape that still shows aggressive selling.