Bitcoin (BTC) Traders See 51% Democratic Midterm Sweep Odds on Polymarket

Polymarket's Balance of Power Market Flips to Democrats

Bettors on Polymarket, the crypto-settled prediction platform, now put the odds of a Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress at 51%, pushing control of the House and Senate into better-than-even territory for the party for the first time in this market's history. The contract at the center of the move, Balance of Power, tracks which party emerges from the Nov. 3 elections in control of Capitol Hill. Within it, the House looks close to decided: Democrats hold 89% odds there, while the Senate remains genuinely contested at 51%. The repricing has been rapid. A year ago, a Democratic sweep traded at just 26%; a month ago, it stood at 45%. Republicans currently control both chambers, meaning the priced-in outcome would amount to a full transfer of power in Washington after Nov. 3. Prediction markets of this type run on crypto rails: traders post collateral into smart contracts, funding positions from a crypto wallet address, and payouts execute automatically once an outcome resolves. That design keeps the book liquid around the clock and has made the venue part of the broader web3 ecosystem — and a real-time political risk gauge that traders who also track Bitcoin (BTC) price action treat as a faster-moving alternative to polling. The 51% figure implies participants now view a full Democratic takeover as marginally more likely than not, an outcome considered a longshot only a year ago. Shifts of this scale rarely stem from one catalyst; they typically reflect an accumulation of economic and political signals priced in over successive sessions. For Republicans, the message from the order book is blunt: capital is betting against their hold on Congress.

Trump Approval Slides Toward 32%

The repricing tracks a sustained slide in President Donald Trump's approval ratings, which some surveys now place as low as 32% to 34%. A joint poll conducted by the Financial Times and FocalData found that a majority of Americans say their personal finances have worsened during Trump's presidency, with a majority of independents agreeing — a pocketbook verdict that lands hard in an election fought over the cost of living. A separate Reuters and Ipsos survey delivered a sharper hit to a traditional Republican strongpoint: voters now split 37% to 36% in the Democrats' favor on which party is better trusted to manage the economy, ending close to a decade of GOP advantage on the issue. Energy costs are compounding the pressure. The national average gasoline price hit a record high of $4.056 a gallon in August, breaking the prior peak of $3.940 from 2022, and the wider energy complex — from pump prices to natural gas — has stayed tense as the conflict with Iran keeps supply expectations volatile. Trump has defended the price spikes as a necessary cost of pushing Iran toward denuclearization, saying he would never apologize because he did the right thing. His administration has also moved to secure alternative supply: this week, the president met with senior oil-industry executives in an effort to court Venezuelan crude and cool prices at the pump. Neither the polling nor the energy backdrop has shown a durable turnaround yet, and each fresh survey print has been followed by measurable movement in the midterms contract. With Election Day roughly two months out, the window for Republicans to reverse the trend is narrowing. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

Nov. 3 Vote in Focus

For COINOTAG, the two threads are one story: political risk is being repriced in real time on crypto rails, and the venue's own listing is the primary record. The official Balance of Power event page on Polymarket states the 51% sweep probability outright, with the House at 89% and the Senate at 51% — no pollster interpretation required. With Bitcoin (BTC) changing hands near $77,660 at the time of writing, digital-asset investors are watching the midterms for what a unified or divided government could mean for crypto regulation. Two months of trading remain before these odds become an outcome.