Rakuten Wallet's Matrix Method Scores Digital Assets at 2.8 of 5, Sees Prolonged Range Trading

Matrix Method Prints 2.8

Rakuten Wallet's technical desk published its Matrix Method reading of the Bitcoin market on Friday, October 23, and graded the market 2.8 out of 5, a composite score just below neutral that points to more sideways trade rather than a decisive break. The Matrix Method is a fixed weekly exercise: it runs six techniques in parallel, chart patterns, the 9-day and 25-day moving averages, Ichimoku, Bollinger Bands, MACD and RSI, grades each from 5 for strong to 1 for weak and averages the results into one number, a design meant to strip discretionary judgment out of the reading and keep the weekly observation objective.

The pattern grade came in at 3. Price briefly slipped under the ¥12.7 million halfway retracement, the 50% pullback of the prior advance, before rebounding, and it has since stalled against the upper bound of a descending channel near ¥13.4 million, with the halfway retracement once again holding as support. A move from here through ¥13.4 million would complete both a head-and-shoulders structure and the ascending flag, the setup this report series has previously called Bitcoin's winning pattern, the one it said ultimately suggests an upward breakout. On the downside, the ¥12.45 million range floor sits on the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, which the report treats as firm support, though a loss of that level tends to produce a fast exit. The historical caveat frames everything: ascending flags of this shape have usually consolidated for at least two to three months, and the report expects this one to do the same. Last week's edition had already conceded that the channel would likely produce a slow drift inside the range, and that is what played out.

Five Gauges Stuck at Neutral

The five other methods all grade neutral, and the uniformity is the story of this week's table. Both moving averages, the 9-day and the 25-day, are running almost flat, which the report scores a 3. Inside the Ichimoku framework, the bullish three-role reversal that followed the earlier recovery has dissolved: price had been finding support along the top of the cloud before being drawn inside it, and while no bearish signal has printed, no directional one has either, leaving that gauge at 3. Bollinger Bands show a squeeze, the compression of volatility that usually precedes a directional move, and the report adds that the lower band could provide temporary support if tested; 3 again. MACD is the single outlier at 2. The attempted golden cross, the moment a faster momentum line crosses above its slower counterpart and typically signals an upturn, failed, and the indicator has since tilted slightly lower. RSI completes the table at 3, parked near the 50 line that separates bullish from bearish momentum without committing to either side.

The previous edition, published on October 16, had cleared a double top formation but still urged caution, and its central call, that the descending channel forming after a large bullish candle was in fact an ascending flag and would grind inside the range before resolving higher, is exactly what the tape delivered. This week's report keeps that frame intact and extends it: consolidation within the ¥12.45 million to ¥13.4 million band remains the base case, with the two bullish pattern completions above ¥13.4 million as the trigger to watch, and the Fibonacci 61.8% confluence at ¥12.45 million as the line a breakdown would run through quickly.

The 2.8 composite is compressed rather than bearish. Five of the six methods sit at exactly 3, so the average is being dragged below neutral by a single input, the failed golden cross on MACD. That narrow spread is itself information: the model finds no edge in either direction, which is the statistical definition of a range. The report's own historical base rate, that ascending flags of this shape have needed at least two to three months of consolidation, argues for patience over leverage, a HODL posture rather than range scalping. On our Bitcoin technical analysis page the same band marks where support and resistance cluster, and the practical read is unchanged: watch ¥13.4 million for the bullish trigger, and ¥12.45 million for the line a loss of which would end the flag thesis.