Santiment Flags Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Signal After 30,000 Wallets Exit

Santiment Counts 30,000 Wallets Gone in 10 Days

Bitcoin (BTC) may be approaching a local bottom, according to an on-chain reading the analytics platform Santiment published on Monday, October 26. The Bitcoin price has spent weeks consolidating, and Santiment's latest count of participation across the Bitcoin network shows roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets, addresses still holding any balance, leaving the network since October 16, pulling the total down to about 59.95 million. The count comes from the platform's weekly participation tracking, which treats the non-empty wallet figure as a proxy for how many distinct holders remain engaged with the asset. The firm's analysis of falling wallet participation frames the drain as retail capitulation, the pattern in which small investors abandon positions while the market is weak, and treats it as a contrarian signal: when the crowd sells into weakness, price has historically moved against majority expectations. In past episodes, capitulation by small holders did more for prices than the buying that arrived once momentum returned, which is why holders who sold out rather than choosing to HODL through the drawdown now sit at the center of the firm's argument.

Santiment attaches one condition to the call. The bottom case strengthens only if the wallet count keeps draining while price holds its ground, and the firm names $80,000 as the immediate battleground. A sustained defense of that level, paired with a reclaim of roughly $82,500, would firm up the contrarian read. A sustained break below the recent $79,000 area would do the opposite: it would delay the pattern and indicate the sell-off still has room to run. The count of engaged addresses has been falling while price consolidated, so the sessions ahead show whether the drain continues against a steadier tape or accelerates into the $79,000 zone.

A Prior Thin-Out Preceded the Recovery Above $85,000

This is not the first time Santiment has read a shrinking holder base as constructive. A September assessment found that 69,494 addresses left the two balance bands holding 0.1 to 1 Bitcoin (BTC) and 1 to 10 BTC across July and August, and the market went on to climb back above $85,000, though it stayed well short of its all-time high. That level carries recent history as well: one desk had warned of a “Circle of Death” reversal from $85,000. The firm is careful about what address counts can and cannot show. When coins move, transaction inputs and outputs redistribute balances, change is often returned to a second address the sender controls, a single investor can operate many addresses, and an address emptied today can receive funds again tomorrow. Exits from the two bands may therefore reflect selling, portfolio rebalancing, or coins migrating outside those ranges, and funded addresses never map one to one onto investors.

An October 9 reading had already flagged the other side of the ledger. Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC), the whale tier of the market, net-added more than 85,000 BTC over roughly three weeks, while the count of wallets below 0.01 BTC kept growing, a mix the firm said at the time was holding back a stronger rebound. The new wrinkle is price. As of October 24, BTC had slipped below its 50-day moving average, the indicator tracking average closes over the period, which had acted as support for about two months before that break. Analyst Darkfost noted on October 21 that the Bull Score Index, a composite of 10 metrics spanning demand, network activity, liquidity and profitability, had fallen from 80 to 60. Both readings cool the backdrop against which the capitulation signal has to work. For readers mapping the longer cycle, our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide offers one frame for where the current stretch sits.

Two Conditions Decide the Bottom Case

The wallet decline on its own proves little, because addresses churn for mechanical reasons as easily as for emotional ones. It becomes a bottom signal only when it pairs with large wallets absorbing the supply small holders shed, the pattern the October 9 data already documented, and with price defending the $80,000 line Santiment named. If the non-empty count keeps falling while BTC reclaims $82,500, the contrarian setup gains real confirmation. If $79,000 gives way first, capitulation has further to run, and the levels our Bitcoin technical analysis tracks would need retesting lower. The debate over whether weakness below $80,000 amounts to a generational buying opportunity stays open until one of those outcomes resolves it.