Solana (SOL) Would Need a $607 Billion Market Cap for a 10x by 2030, 24/7 Wall Street Finds

Update 21:54 UTC: The exchange of comments around the Shanghai episode carried a broader list of assets than the article's earlier coverage noted.

A $607 Billion Market Cap for Solana

A tenfold rally in Solana (SOL) by 2030 would leave the layer-1 network with a $607 billion market cap and a price of $1,029.80 per token, and among the four largest crypto assets that is the shortest climb on the board. The call belongs to an analysis published Thursday by the investment publication 24/7 Wall Street, which measured Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP and Solana against the familiar 10x target and found none of the four gets there easily; Solana simply needs the smallest move. Solana price action gives the framing context rather than proof: the asset has rebounded 40.02% over the past 60 days, ahead of XRP at 34.16%, Bitcoin at 29.89% and Ethereum at 29.44%, yet all four still trade below where they stood a year ago, a cycle we follow in our Solana coverage and across the wider Altcoin market. Starting size, the analysis argues, is what sets the difficulty, because the market cap rather than the coin price determines how much new money a 10x requires. Bitcoin sits at a $1.63 trillion market cap, Ethereum at $289 billion, XRP at $82.7 billion and Solana (SOL) at $60.7 billion, so tenfold valuations would demand $16.29 trillion, $2.89 trillion, $827 billion and $607 billion respectively, with target prices of $811,000, $23,682 and $13.1 for the first three. At the Bitcoin target, the piece notes, the asset would hold a large share of the $23.34 trillion in US M2 money supply recorded in August 2026, a comparison that shows how far the biggest targets sit from the money that exists. Whether that head start matters, the analysis adds, depends less on arithmetic than on who shows up to buy and how fast new supply lands, which is where the story turns.

ETF Outflows and a Small Buyer Pool

The easiest path still runs through two structural problems: who would buy, and how much new supply keeps arriving. US spot Solana ETFs hold about $1.66 billion in net assets, with roughly $1.58 billion in cumulative net inflows, less than the roughly $1.8 billion across XRP funds and a fraction of the $104.83 billion in Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have collected about $56.96 billion cumulatively; Ethereum spot ETFs hold about $15.2 billion. Solana (SOL) funds also posted net outflows on every trading day in the October 5-9 and October 12-14 windows, the stretch that ended a 14-week inflow streak. Supply is the other half, and the tokenomics work against the target: staking rewards keep releasing new SOL, leaving 589.3 million tokens circulating against a 635.8 million total, and the analysis warns that if the gap narrows while issuance continues, a $607 billion market cap would imply a price below $1,029.80 per token. XRP carries a parallel drag from Ripple's scheduled escrow releases, with 63.1 billion of a maximum 100 billion tokens in circulation, while Bitcoin's 20,098,593 coins against a hard 21 million cap and Ethereum's fee-burning mechanism leave those two with less dilution but much larger starting valuations. Drawdowns frame the recovery argument: Solana sits 64.89% below its all-time high, deeper than XRP at 64.06%, Ethereum at 52.12% and Bitcoin at 35.68% from its $126,080 peak, so much of Solana's theoretical 10x is ground regained rather than fresh demand. The sequencing the analysis sets out is explicit: Solana ETF flows must turn back to net inflows and push cumulative inflows past XRP's roughly $1.8 billion, the market cap must clear XRP's $82.7 billion, and Ethereum's $289 billion must then fall despite ongoing staking issuance.

A demand-side wrinkle outside the flow data arrived this week, when Solana's push into Shanghai ran into trouble. The network publicized a new office and an advertising campaign in the city, but its planned event at the Shangri-La Hotel was postponed on October 16, with attendees reporting a law enforcement presence; organizers cited logistical reasons, and Solana Foundation President Lily Liu said a sudden 4x spike in registrations exceeded the headcount filed with local authorities. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, whose earlier comments about the expansion drew speculation that he had drawn official attention, denied any link, noting the Shanghai building advertisement was reportedly removed within 10 minutes and that he saw it only 12 to 24 hours after it went up. He restated his support for SOL, XRP, ZEC and other major assets on X, saying he backs any blockchain making progress in any country.

The exchange of comments around the Shanghai episode carried a broader list of assets than the article's earlier coverage noted. On X, Changpeng Zhao said he takes a positive view of Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Solana, HYPE, ZEC, SIGN and stablecoins, framing his support around any blockchain advancing in any country rather than picking sides among networks. He had initially welcomed Solana's physical visibility in Shanghai and suggested such steps could point to possible flexibility in China's restrictions on crypto assets. With the event postponed and the building advertisement taken down, that assessment now sits alongside open questions about how far China's official approach to the sector has actually shifted.

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The $82.7 Billion Line

Where this leaves the market is a test that flow data can grade directly. While Solana funds bleed on every session and XRP funds hold the larger pool, Solana's smaller market cap is less a head start than a demand reading, and for now that reading is weak. If inflows return and the $82.7 billion line breaks and holds, the small-cap argument starts doing real work; if the outflows persist and Solana stays below XRP, the smallest cap on the board becomes the clearest sign that demand is not there. The recent rebound from the $100.62 low to near $106 covers only the first step of that climb, and the levels involved sit where our Solana technical analysis tracks them.