Strategy (MSTR) Faces $2.8 Billion in Fund Selling as MSCI Bitcoin Verdict Nears

MSCI Review Verdict Due Tonight

MSCI will publish the results of its November index review shortly after 11:00 PM CET on Wednesday, and the deletion list could include Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC). The Bitcoin (BTC) price held near $73,600 ahead of the decision, little changed over 24 hours. The index provider approved new eligibility criteria on October 15 that screen out companies whose financial traits resemble investment funds more than operating businesses. The methodology first asks whether an issuer holds substantial operating assets; issuers that fail that screen face five further tests covering assets, expenses, operating cash flow, fair-value exposure and dependence on external financing, and a company becomes ineligible if it fails at least four of the five. MSCI has previously identified Strategy and Japan's Metaplanet among the issuers potentially affected, and other digital asset treasury firms now face review under the same framework. JPMorgan has put the potential passive-fund selling at about $2.8 billion if Strategy is removed, an estimate prepared under an earlier draft of the rules. Exclusion would not compel the company to sell any Bitcoin (BTC); the forced selling would fall on the index-tracking funds that own MSTR shares. The indirect cost is financing: a weaker share price makes future equity issuance more expensive, and Strategy has relied on equity and debt offerings to fund its accumulation. Any changes take effect after the market close on November 30. The verdict lands as Anthropic prepares one of the largest share offerings on record. The registration statement filed with the SEC lists 825 million shares at $70 to $78 apiece, raising up to $64.4 billion at a valuation of up to $1.02 trillion before dilution, or $1.4 trillion fully diluted. A separate $26 billion private placement involving Google, Nvidia and AMD lifts combined proceeds to $90.4 billion. The filing reports an annualized revenue run rate of $17 billion per quarter, set against computing commitments approaching $900 billion.

Strategy Bought 1,036 Bitcoin Into the Decision

Strategy has acknowledged the index risk in its own financial disclosures and expects its common stock to be removed under the revised criteria. Company disclosures state that funds tracking MSCI indexes held approximately 13 million MSTR shares, about 3.1% of basic shares outstanding; at Tuesday's closing price of $121.07 that stake was worth about $1.57 billion. Existing constituents must meet the new exclusion conditions across their two most recent annual reporting periods, although MSCI can weigh more recent interim filings. The shares had already lost ground before the decision, closing at $145.16 on October 28, a decline of roughly 16.6% in two weeks. Purchases continued through the pressure. A November 9 disclosure recorded the acquisition of 1,036 Bitcoin (BTC), taking total holdings to 850,364 BTC as of November 8, alongside the repurchase of about $188.3 million of STRC preferred shares funded with proceeds from common stock sales. The same disclosure listed roughly $4.9 billion in US dollar assets held alongside the Bitcoin treasury. Exclusion would not force the company to sell any Bitcoin, and any impact on future purchases would depend on its financing decisions. A sustained slide in the share price would also make new equity issuance less attractive at a point when the market value of the stock sits close to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Market commentator Adrian Morris addressed the selling question in a November 11 post on X, writing that an official exclusion announcement could push the shares lower again but that the move is “likely priced in, not a terminal event.” Morris had made the same case on October 16, when he disputed framing the $2.8 billion outflow estimate as an existential threat to the company. Passive funds must reset their holdings around the November 30 implementation date, and the realized selling pressure will depend on fund exposure, trading activity and how investors position ahead of the effective date.

@_Adrian · X post

Post on X.

View on X

MSTR traded at $121.01 at the latest reading, down 1.1% across the past 24 hours, and the daily chart still reads as a downtrend with the 14-day RSI at 36.5. COINOTAG's composite scoring rates the $119.03 support at 75 out of 100, with overhead resistance at $123.64 scoring 96 out of 100. A confirmed exclusion tonight would likely send the shares toward the $119 level, while a move back above $123.64 would be the first sign that the selling-pressure argument is fading. Perpetual funding rate printed 0.0078% and open interest stood near $104.5 million into the announcement.