Bitcoin (BTC) Investor Ted Pillows Claims 16% Weekly Rise After Fed Decisions

Ted Pillows Puts 16% on the Fed

Bitcoin (BTC) investor Ted Pillows has spent the run-up to this week's Federal Reserve meeting posting through the drawdown, and used that X pulpit to put a number on his conviction about the Bitcoin (BTC) price: 16% higher within a week of the decision, if history repeats. “Last time, Bitcoin bottomed exactly on announcement day and rose 16% in a week,” Pillows wrote, presenting the move as a repeating playbook rather than a one-off. The post names no past meeting and gives no basis for the 16% calculation, so the pattern cannot be checked against any specific Fed decision on the record. He is not alone in the call. Sykodelic published a chart that, at first glance, showed Bitcoin sliding off a cliff, then disclosed that the image had been flipped upside down, a device intended to argue that the real chart points the opposite way. Kaleo added a shorter verdict, that the bottom is in, while declining to name a price level that would make the call testable. The calls share a shape: each asserts a floor without the numbers that would let anyone check it. None of the three posts discloses a position, an entry or a target behind the wording. The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting body, convened Oct 27-28 local time, and its policy statement lands on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC, with the chair's press conference following at 18:30 UTC. Timed against that clock, the bottom calls function as positions on the outcome without the disclosures a reader could weigh them against. COINOTAG reviewed each post in the cluster ahead of the decision and found none supplying the dates, levels or methodology a reader would need to verify the pattern. That is the standard a bottom call should meet, and it is the one this review applies.

18,600 BTC in Loss Deposits

On-chain data fills part of the gap the posts leave open, and it is less friendly to the bullish read. The short-term holder deposit metric, which grades coins moving onto exchanges by whether their holders carried them at a profit or a loss, showed on Tuesday, Oct 27, that deposits made at a loss over the previous 24 hours outnumbered profitable deposits by 18,600 Bitcoin (BTC). The imbalance measures the profit status of coins arriving at exchanges in that window and nothing broader: it does not indicate a net change in exchange balances, and it does not say how much of the deposited supply was sold afterward. It also sits outside the market's larger plumbing. The metric says nothing about spot ETF flows, which clear through a separate channel, and the aggregate cannot show whether whale wallets or smaller depositors drove the day's mix. Short-term holders, the cohort the metric samples, are the wallets most likely to react to a macro print, which is why their deposit behavior draws attention around meetings like this one. What the number does establish is that coins changing hands on the eve of the decision were skewed toward holders underwater on their entries, the behavioral footprint that has historically shown up in capitulation phases rather than in confirmed recoveries. By itself, an 18,600 Bitcoin (BTC) loss-deposit surplus neither guarantees a top nor a bottom; it records sentiment at the moment of transfer. The meeting is the only scheduled catalyst on the table, which is why deposit behavior in its final hours carries more weight than it would in a quiet week. A bottom call, in that light, is a bet that this footprint flips once the rate decision clears, and the callers have offered no marker for when, or at what level, that flip should register.

As posted, the cluster is an argument without exhibits. Pillows' 16% figure, Sykodelic's flipped chart and Kaleo's one-liner each assert a floor while supplying no date, level or method, and the one hard number available points the other way, with loss-carrying deposits outnumbering profitable ones by 18,600 BTC on Tuesday. The calls ask for HODL discipline through the print while the flows lean toward distribution. Pillows' anecdote also reaches back to a market whose structure now turns on spot ETF flows and halving-cycle gauges such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart rather than on a single Fed afternoon. For levels instead of narratives, our Bitcoin technical analysis page tracks the chart, and both the Hyperliquid whale shift to net short and the Coinbase premium's five-month low cut against an immediate bottom.