If Lark Davis’ Favored Path Plays Out, Bitcoin (BTC) Peaks at $413,000 by 2028

Willy Woo’s 10,000 Paths to $413,000

Bitcoin (BTC) price would have to trace one specific path out of 10,000 for the boldest number in the current cycle debate to land: $413,000 by 2028. That path comes from on-chain analyst Willy Woo, whose simulation podcaster Lark Davis walked through on the October 31 episode of The Lark Davis Show. Woo’s method is a random walk, a Monte Carlo construction that draws thousands of randomized price paths from the asset’s own historical return distribution, so the output is a probability map rather than a scheduled forecast. He also built in power-law slowdown, the tendency of returns to compress as a maturing market ages, which is why the model’s far end stops at $413,000 rather than the steeper extrapolations of earlier cycles. Exactly one of the 10,000 paths reaches $413,000 in 2028. Davis argued that the 28th to 50th percentile of the distribution is the reasonable band to work from, which frames the 2028 peak between $241,000 and $413,000, and he noted that most scenarios cluster in the $240,000 to $400,000 range. “If you buy it now, $413,000 sounds absurd, but it’s not that crazy a number,” he said, adding that the capital needed to carry the asset to $400,000 is nowhere near an outlandish sum. The claim is explicitly conditional, and none of those levels has been reached. What makes the upper end discussable at all, in Davis’ framing, is a second layer he laid out on the same episode: a set of bottom signals he says are either already flashing or closing in on a trigger.

The signals start with momentum. Davis said the daily relative strength index, a momentum gauge, sent a clear buy signal at $82,000, matching the one it produced at $63,000 earlier in the cycle; in his reading, every past entry into this RSI zone was a buying opportunity, and the market may be coiling for a rebound above $90,000. A higher-timeframe chart that analyst Cold Blooded Shiller calls the most important shows the asset held below a downtrend channel for 12 months before flipping that trend over the past two months; the level to watch there is $75,000, and a similar setup in May carried price from $70,000 to roughly $126,000. Analyst Titanic Crypto added that whenever 10-day candles have appeared repeatedly inside a bearish Gaussian channel, a bear market bottom was already in place, and he sees that structure forming again. Cycle analogs like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart frame this the same way, as a zone where history favors accumulation over panic. The signal Davis weighted most is the log-scale MACD. The two-week version has already printed a bullish crossover, and the three-week and monthly versions are moving toward the same crossover, one he says occurs only about once every 3 to 4 years, a cadence that echoes the Bitcoin halving rhythm. Every time this crossover has fired, he argued, the market bottom was already behind it and a new bull cycle had begun. He also pointed to accumulated trauma, from the 2022 FTX collapse and lender bankruptcies through the Luna affair and the October 10 crash, contending that five years of suppressed energy could fuel a record bull market for Bitcoin (BTC). Readers tracking these levels can follow them on our Bitcoin technical analysis page.

AI Whales and a Pending Monthly Cross

Our reading is that the thesis rests on conditions, not outcomes. The crossover furthest from confirmation is the monthly MACD, which has not printed yet, so the bullish case stays open rather than proven. Davis added a capital argument: large winners from AI stocks are quietly rotating into the asset, a cohort that behaves like crypto whales by size if not by habit. He rated the probability of the asset rising from $80,000 to $300,000 higher than NVIDIA growing from a $5 trillion market cap to $20 trillion by 2028. For retail, his advice was to hold the asset as long-term protection, in effect a HODL position, and to consider the altcoin market only with larger risk appetite. That rotation matches what corporate treasuries are doing; Strategy resumed its Bitcoin buying with 811 coins for $65.5 million. Davis closed by conceding he has been wrong before, and that bears rooting for $40,000 want to be proven right more than they want to buy there.