XRP's $1.33 Test Decides the Path to $1.50 or a Slide to $1, ChartNerd Says

$1.33 Separates Two XRP Paths

Which side of $1.33 the XRP price closes on this week may do more to set the coin's quarter than any other line on its chart, and the market currently sits only pennies above that threshold. XRP traded at about $1.34 on Thursday, up 0.4% over 24 hours, after last week's candle settled beneath the 20-week moving average, the first weekly close on the wrong side of that line in this advance. That close is the entire argument. The analyst ChartNerd, who has tracked the weekly structure since September, reads it as the condition that puts a return to $1 back on the table. In a post published on Thursday, he writes that a retest of the current zone could still form a double bottom comparable to the one XRP printed in 2022, but that every additional weekly close under the 20-week average hardens the bearish reading, while a firm reclaim of $1.33 would strip that scenario of most of its force. The surrounding numbers explain the attention: the coin is down roughly 3% on the week, 6% over 30 days and 45% year over year, and it sits 63% beneath its all-time high of $3.65. Among large-cap altcoins, few setups are this binary into a single weekly candle. The weekly history adds texture: in mid-September, XRP dipped beneath the 20-week exponential moving average intraweek, recovered to close above it, and pushed on to the 50-week average near $1.50. Since then that 50-week line has capped every advance for nine to ten consecutive weeks, after a climb of roughly 70% that carried the coin from its 98-cent floor to $1.70. From that peak, the price has given back about 25%, leaving the chart pinned between an average it escaped in September and one it has not beaten since.

The two roads from $1.33 are drawn with unusual precision. To the upside, ChartNerd describes the $1.30 zone as “a lifeline for buyers”: a weekly reclaim of $1.33 that holds reopens the road toward $1.50, where leveraged positions in the futures market cluster just above, near $1.55. A decisive break through that band extends the map toward $1.80 to $2.00. The downside case runs through the same weekly close that just failed: if candles keep settling below the 20-week average, the door opens to a deeper slide toward $1, where the largest block of leveraged positions since the floor has accumulated. Neither side of the book is small; the concentrations near $1.55 above and $1 below are the ones he tracks. The longer frame behind the call is the monthly Gaussian channel, an indicator that draws bands around multi-year trends. After the tops of earlier cycles, XRP lost the upper band and fell back to the mid-band, which now sits at 98 cents. In the current cycle the upper band, at $1.54, has capped price for three months, and the mid-band has not been visited. That 98-cent line is also where the 2022 bottom formed, and where the 70% rally of this cycle began. The 2022 parallel weighs most heavily in his reading: that year the coin bottomed, rallied about 90% to the 50-week average, then returned to its lows within a week or two of losing the 20-week average, and he judges the present setup similar. He also concedes that his earlier targets between 70 and 90 cents never arrived, and he closes the note by stating plainly that he does not know what will happen. The speed cuts both ways: a single-day rebound recorded at $4.1 billion in market cap can be erased just as fast.

@ChartNerdTA · X post

“a lifeline for buyers”.

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What Our Composite Reads at $1.34

Our support and resistance levels from the composite scoring place the market almost exactly on the disputed line: spot at $1.3423 rests on a support cluster scored 100 out of 100, an EMA-100 floor reinforced by the Ichimoku Cloud bottom and the Tenkan line, while the first real ceiling stands at $1.4061, scored 85 out of 100, where the 50-day SMA meets the Kijun. Momentum in the same pack leans the other way, with the RSI at 44.23 and a bearish MACD signal inside a downtrend. Positioning shows no forced exit: open interest near $956 million, with accounts net long at a 2.75 ratio. Separate coverage ranks XRP's MVRV recovery potential highest among the majors, and a bolder forecast on our pages has XRP at $4 by November 30. The test that settles it is mechanical: one weekly close above $1.33, or a second below the 20-week average.