XRP Faces Its $1.40 Reclaim Test as Ripple's Swell Week Opens in New York

Swell Week Under a 64% Drawdown

Whether XRP has found a floor is the one thing this week will not settle on its own. The XRP price was hovering near $1.29 on Monday, roughly 64% below the $3.65 all-time high set in July 2025, down about 17% over the past 30 days and 51% over the trailing year. Our live reading put the token at $1.2867, a 0.6% slip over 24 hours, against a market cap near $81.5 billion and roughly $804 million in 24-hour volume. That drawdown frames the opening of Ripple's flagship Swell conference, which starts in New York this week with more than 100 speakers billed, part of a gathering earlier counted at some 1,500 decision-makers. Branding for the event has already gone up inside the 42nd Street subway station, and many holders expect partnership announcements from the stage.

Rumor has filled the gap ahead of the opening. Posts circulating over the weekend claimed BlackRock had signed a $6.5 trillion XRP tokenization agreement and that vast sums of real estate were about to migrate onto the XRP Ledger. No such announcement or regulatory filing exists. Community members pushed back within hours, calling the claims what they are, textbook FUD: a large number, no document behind it, and a market primed by the conference calendar to move on whatever circulates. Not every count is bearish, either. One analysis shared widely among traders notes that even after the drop, XRP still trades about 2.6 times above where its 2024 breakout began, and the weakness is not XRP-specific: Bitcoin slid to $79,000 over the weekend and now hovers near $80,000, with large-cap altcoins following it lower across the broader XRP market.

About $81.8 Million Left Exchanges on Sunday

The bear case writes itself from those drawdowns. The flow data points the other way. Figures published on Sunday show net withdrawals across three major crypto exchanges totaling roughly $81.8 million: Upbit saw $42.49 million leave, Binance $25.22 million and Coinbase $14.13 million, per the net outflow data shared that day. Coins moving off exchange wallets are generally read as holders shifting to self-custody rather than positioning to sell, a reading that carries extra weight in a month where the token lost 17%. Institutional demand has ticked back up as well: spot XRP ETFs absorbed $4.26 million last week, flipping back to net inflows after a single weekly outflow, and Thursday delivered $3.55 million, the best single day since October 8. Network use has held firm too, with XRP wallet numbers reaching a record 8.24 million earlier this month.

@Xfinancebull · X post

Net outflow data.

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The longer-horizon technical case rests on the RSI on the monthly chart, which one analyst flags as nearing a historic oversold zone, a condition reached only at major cycle turns across the past 13 years; that same reading carries long-term targets of $3.50, $7 and $14. Verifiable company news is smaller but real. Ripple partnered with Arf last week to bring RLUSD lending to the XRP Ledger, and Nasdaq-listed Evernorth registered 5.2 million shares with plans to buy more XRP. Standard Chartered, for its part, raised its year-end target to $2.80, a level the token now sits more than 115% below. None of those prints, bullish or bearish, tests whether the Swell stage actually produces a concrete banking or tokenization deal; the flows can only position for an outcome.

@Carolinatcwnl · X post

Flags as nearing a historic oversold zone.

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The near-term map gives both camps something to defend. Our composite scoring places the strongest support at $1.2748, where the 100- and 200-day averages and the 0.618 Fibonacci level converge, at 100 out of 100; the nearest resistance at $1.3416 scores 98 out of 100. The daily RSI reads 38.04 with a bearish MACD, and positioning leans long: open interest stands near $896 million with a long/short account ratio of 3.56. The longer-cycle bull view, that a 9-year ascending channel points toward $30 by 2028, does not move those near lines. What settles the week is specific: a daily close above the $1.40 threshold analysts have marked for bottom confirmation, or a loss of $1.2748 that opens the $1.05–$1.15 band below. Our full XRP technical analysis tracks both.