Former Ripple Adviser Anthony Welfare Says XRP Tech Is Ready but Adoption Isn’t

Update 12:56 UTC: Analyst Alex Carchidi argues in a report dated October 17 that XRP could reclaim $3 by 2030, but only with roughly $105.6 billion of added market capitalization on top of the $83.8 billion at the time of his analysis, and with a new wave of buyers that has not yet formed.

Anthony Welfare’s Warning on XRP Adoption

The strongest case for XRP right now is technical, and one of the people who helped shape Ripple’s institutional push says that is precisely where the risk sits. Anthony Welfare, a former Ripple central bank digital currency (CBDC) adviser, said in a podcast interview that the XRP Ledger has the features institutions need for payments and tokenization, but that those features alone will not guarantee adoption. Welfare, who has advised central banks and worked on payment projects, credits the ledger’s speed, low transaction costs and native decentralized exchange as genuine strengths. He also draws a distinction that reframes how the adoption story should be read: the XRP asset and the XRP Ledger are separate things, so an institution can use ledger functions without ever relying on the token. That separation explains why network usage and token demand can diverge, a nuance much of the coverage around the ledger blurs. The real gap, in his view, sits between technical readiness and production use, and it runs through liquidity, the work of the market maker, custody, compliance and interoperability. “The tech is there,” he said, conceding the supply side while pointing attention at demand. Private blockchains, he expects, will expand first, with some of that activity later anchoring to public networks. He also sees a role for auditable records that AI agents can rely on, which calls for trusted transaction layers, and he argues stablecoins will reduce payment friction while creating orchestration opportunities for existing players rather than eliminating them. Market data shows the XRP price up 1.72% over the past 24 hours and near $1.34 in mid-October, though the action remains volatile. Whether this stretch of institutional activity becomes lasting demand is the open question his remarks leave hanging.

Welfare made the remarks on the AllinCrypto podcast, and one passage goes further than the summary points. "When you see a lot of the things being put out around XRP and its ecosystem, and Ripple as a company, paving the way more, the new financial system that can solve correspondent banking problems, everyone doing all these use cases," he said, framing the ledger as infrastructure designed to replace the correspondent banking layer rather than supplement it. The interview also adds detail on sequencing: institutions are actively testing the network, which places the current moment at the pilot stage of his checklist rather than at production, the phase where liquidity, custody and compliance work gets priced by real counterparties.

Evernorth’s Nasdaq Debut Frames the Test

Welfare’s caution arrives after a month in which XRP’s institutional calendar filled up. A European consortium is targeting euro stablecoin adoption across several networks, including the XRP Ledger, a multi-network design that matches his interoperability thesis rather than a single-chain victory. The International Monetary Fund’s October Global Financial Stability Report maps the XRP Ledger alongside other public ledgers in its discussion of tokenized finance, the kind of institutional reference point the ecosystem has spent years seeking. Ripple has meanwhile deepened its footprint with Prime services for hedge fund Brevan Howard and a DriveWealth integration that uses the RLUSD stablecoin on the ledger to accelerate global funding. The most visible development came this week, when Evernorth, a Ripple-backed vehicle holding about 473 million XRP, debuted on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN. Shares opened at $16.68, briefly climbed to $19.38 and closed at $16.91 on Monday, October 12. Ripple marked the listing in an October 14 post, calling Evernorth a new milestone for the XRP ecosystem and pointing to institutional strategies that put the asset to work as new network capabilities arrive. The market’s verdict was cooler: XRPN closed at $15.26 on Wednesday, October 14, down 7.40% on the day. The listing does give traditional investors stock-market exposure to a large XRP treasury without direct spot trading of the token, a structural bridge that anticipates Welfare’s liquidity and custody checklist. The debut also followed Garlinghouse’s Nasdaq bell appearance, where the Ripple chief executive defended the company’s legal clarity in front of the exchange’s cameras. Each of these developments puts the ledger in a different role, from settlement to funding, and together they support his multi-chain reading of the market. What none of them yet demonstrates is recurring, token-level demand, the variable that decides whether the calendar converts into adoption.

The ledger-versus-token question has now been put into numbers. Analyst Alex Carchidi argues in a report dated October 17 that XRP could reclaim $3 by 2030, but only with roughly $105.6 billion of added market capitalization on top of the $83.8 billion at the time of his analysis, and with a new wave of buyers that has not yet formed. The math is unforgiving: with about 63.1 billion tokens circulating, $3 implies a $189.4 billion valuation, a 125.6% climb from the $1.33 trading on October 14, while around 36.9 billion unreleased tokens loom as extra supply from Ripple's monthly escrow unlocks of up to 1 billion XRP. Carchidi adds a sharper point that mirrors Welfare's: RLUSD can now settle major currency pairs without XRP, and firms using Ripple's services have little reason to hold the token, which is why product-market fit has stayed elusive.

Ledger Use Without Token Demand

The distinction Welfare draws is the one to hold onto. If institutions can settle and tokenize on the ledger without holding XRP, listings and partnerships do not mechanically convert into buying pressure, and the tape has behaved accordingly: a 14.5% weekly slide tested $1.30 support before a 2.8% bounce, and 97% of XRP net-long exposure opened above $1.31, leaving positioning already leveraged to the adoption case he calls unproven. Evernorth’s 7.40% slide on October 14 points the same way: dedicated treasury vehicles are being priced on flows, not narrative. The test ahead is whether liquidity, custody and compliance plumbing arrives fast enough to create recurring demand for the token itself, rather than for the ledger alone. For the day-to-day levels, our XRP technical analysis keeps the tape under separate review.