XRP Trades at $1.01 Below 20, 50 and 200-Day Moving Averages

Below Every Major Moving Average

XRP is trading at $1.01 on Friday, holding just above the dollar line but below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages after an intraday slide to $0.996 earlier in the session. The XRP price has fallen 13.4% over the past week, 18.6% across two weeks and 23.3% over the past month, leaving it 72% below the all-time high of $3.65 set on July 17, 2025, while market data puts the market cap near $63.9 billion. Each of those averages now sits well above the market, at $1.21, $1.34 and $1.26 respectively, a stack that has defined the downtrend since October. The nearest downside reference is the August 16 closing low of $0.9927, the weakest daily close of the year; buyers met that level in August and carried a rebound to $1.45 by August 21, a move that ran alongside Bitcoin's climb from $62,844 to $78,318 over the same stretch. The contrast now is stark: Bitcoin, at $68,519, still trades above the $62,844 it held when that recovery began, yet XRP changes hands lower, a relative weakness the broader altcoin market has shared. If the $0.99 shelf fails on a daily closing basis, the next major historical zone dates to November 2023, when the token traded at $0.63, a level that would surrender the entire 62.2% gain of the past three years. Rising supply compounds the pressure: XRP traded at $1.04 on both June 25 and November 12, yet the market cap stood near $64.9 billion in June against $66.1 billion by mid-November, meaning more tokens in circulation at the same price. Rate expectations add a further variable: market pricing implied an 88.7% probability that the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on December 9, with the risk of further increases afterward, rather than the expected move itself, looming as the larger burden.

ETF Outflows and the Dollar Line

Flows into United States spot XRP ETFs have turned into a persistent drag on the recovery case. Net assets across the products stood at $1.51 billion on October 14 and had slipped to $1.16 billion by November 12; November 9 alone recorded $10.4 million in net outflows and November 10 a further $7.6 million, of which Grayscale's XRP fund accounted for $7.2 million. Across four trading days through November 12 the products shed a combined $18 million, and November 11 and 12 passed with no net movement in either direction. Institutional interest has not vanished entirely: a 13F filing disclosed a $111,255 Bitwise XRP ETF stake held by Rakuten. Underneath the flows, the token trades 37% below its October high of $1.60. Momentum readings carry the same message: the daily RSI recently dropped to 21.5, deep inside oversold territory, while the MACD remains bearish, leaving the chart closer to a bear market than a routine pullback. Scenarios divide along familiar lines. A recovery needs a reclaim of $1.10 first and then a stronger move above $1.17 to show selling pressure fading; a neutral tape would hold the $1.00 to $1.10 band while direction is decided; a sustained daily close below $0.985 would expose a slide toward $0.90. Ownership shapes which path wins. Retail holders who entered during the summer rally face the hardest decision between locking in losses now and holding through a possible deeper correction, while larger wallets could treat the weakness as an accumulation zone; if both groups sell at once, the dollar line becomes very difficult to defend, with stop-loss clusters and liquidation mechanics near $1 able to amplify the break. Ripple's institutional payments and stablecoin push continues in the background, as does a scheduled reset of the XRP Ledger testnet and devnet set for November 25.

Support at $0.9892

The composite support map puts the strongest floor at $0.9892, scored 86 out of 100, with the nearest resistance at $1.0541, scored 79, so the tape is compressing inside a band a few cents wide even as the daily RSI prints 20.49 and the MACD stays bearish, a reading set out in our XRP technical analysis. Positioning has not capitulated: 78.8% of accounts are long at a 3.72 long/short ratio, and perpetual funding sits near flat at 0.0012%, leaving the crowd leaning against the trend rather than chasing it. What the slide has not changed is the dollar line itself: intraday buyers stepped in when the token dipped to $0.996 earlier in the session, and the spot price, at $1.0085 at the time of writing, still holds above it. A daily close under $0.985, not another intraday wick, is what would redraw the map.