XRP Breaks Below $1.20 Support, Putting the $1.11 Fibonacci Level in Play

Altcoin Outflows Drag XRP Below $1.20

The defining pattern of the week in the altcoin market has been a steady drain of capital away from everything outside Bitcoin, and XRP entered the weekend on the wrong end of it. The XRP price lost its $1.20 support, and market data as of 06:01 UTC on 7 November showed a decline of 3.15% over 24 hours, leaving the token near $1.16, where live readings taken since the report place it essentially unchanged. The fall ranked among the heaviest of any large-cap asset: total cryptocurrency market capitalization slipped just 0.27% over the same window, meaning the selling in XRP was an amplification of a sector trend rather than a market-wide rout. The sentiment engine behind that trend is measurable. The Altcoin Season Index, which tracks whether alternative coins are outperforming Bitcoin, dropped 10.2% across seven days to 44, a reading generally taken to confirm that risk appetite has shifted toward the largest asset and away from the tail, well short of conditions associated with a renewed bull market for the sector. On Upbit, South Korea's largest crypto venue, the token quoted 1,585 won, down 1.43% over the same 24 hours, showing the retreat was global rather than a local arbitrage artifact. Nothing in the flows points to a coin-specific scandal; portfolio managers trimming higher-beta exposure explain most of the tape, and XRP, as a high-beta fifth-ranked asset, absorbed a disproportionate share of that trimming. Whether that outflow cycle has further to run is what the next sessions will show.

Two supply-side facts explain why the coin's losses outran its peers. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported that the hackers behind the theft of roughly $50 million in XRP have been converting the stolen tokens into Bitcoin; such conversions proceed regardless of price, which makes them a mechanical source of supply that no chart level can absorb on its own. Meanwhile, the spot XRP exchange-traded funds listed in the United States, vehicles that hold the token directly and whose daily net flows offer the cleanest read on institutional demand, have posted zero net inflows for several consecutive sessions. A market without a bid of size is what remains. The coin sits below every major moving average after the $1.20 break, and its 14-day relative strength index read 33.13 when levels were assessed on 7 November, brushing the edge of oversold territory. The leveraged side had already paid for the weakness: XRP longs absorbed a $30 million wipeout across a five-day liquidation cascade before the support gave way, and the $1.35 test earlier in the week left no defended high above the market. What decides the next 24 to 48 hours is one line. Reclaiming $1.17 would open the way to a technical rebound off oversold conditions; a daily close beneath it exposes the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement near $1.11; and any constructive turn in the trend requires $1.20 recovered on a closing basis, the sequence the full set of XRP technical analysis levels arranges around.

COINOTAG's composite support and resistance scoring frames where that fight lands. The strongest support below the market is $1.1393, scored 93 out of 100, sitting just beneath the current print near $1.16; overhead, the nearest resistance of consequence is $1.1953, scored 60 out of 100, which caps any recovery attempt before the $1.20 line comes back into range. Positioning has not followed price lower: the perp funding rate holds at 0.0031% and long accounts outnumber shorts 3.32 to 1, with 76.8% of accounts still on the long side, while the relative strength index has eased to 31.29 and the trend reads as a downtrend. What the selloff has not changed is that imbalance itself. Sellers have been supplying into a market with no ETF bid all week, and until $1.17 is reclaimed or fund flows resume, that condition, rather than any new catalyst, remains the operative story.