If the Monthly Close Holds $1.20, XRP's Bull Market Stays Intact, EGRAG CRYPTO Says

The $1.20 Monthly Close

For XRP's macro bull market to survive the current drawdown, one condition has to hold: the monthly candle must close above $1.20. Digital-asset analyst EGRAG CRYPTO framed it exactly that way in his October 9 post on X, arguing that the token can still retrace all the way down to $1.20 without leaving its long-term bullish structure behind. In that post he pushed back on the panic around the selloff, opening with the line “XRP CRASHED! CANCEL VALHALLA?” before steering readers back toward what he called charts and numbers rather than coffee-cup commentary. The XRP price has dropped hard enough that some holders began asking whether the entire bullish roadmap was void, and his answer was conditional rather than reassuring: the roadmap stands only as long as the $1.20 level is defended on a monthly close. He named $1.20 as the price zone that decides whether the long-term bullish scenario remains valid, and he conceded that a persistent decline below it would force him to reconsider the whole read. Until that verdict arrives, he kept every target on the table: $1.65 first, then a $4 to $8 band, and beyond that more than $15 in the long run. The retrace itself, if it comes, would not by itself settle the question, because in his framework the low of a wick carries no verdict; only the close does. That distinction matters right now, with the wider altcoin market wobbling and holders looking for a line that separates noise from a genuine structural break.

@egragcrypto · X post

His October 9 post on X.

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The 33-Month EMA Framework

The scenario rests on the monthly chart, where the analyst says two exponential moving averages (EMAs) have historically separated major market cycles: the 33-month EMA and the 111-month EMA. An EMA weights recent months more heavily than a simple average, which is why cycle analysts track such long-period versions to filter daily noise. In his reading, those two lines divided past long advances from long consolidations, and the current market is forming a new structure rather than breaking the old one. At the moment, the 33-month EMA is working as resistance overhead, one reason upside has stalled, but he noted that earlier long advances absorbed corrections of similar severity before producing their strongest legs. His conviction on direction is stated without hedging: “the bottom is already in,” in his words, a claim he presents as belief rather than measurement. From there he laid out the upside ladder. The first gate is $1.65, the level he wants reclaimed before anything else on the map counts. Above it sits the $4 to $8 zone, which he ties to Fibonacci extension levels, and beyond that the long-term scenario he labels “Valhalla,” above $15, with no date attached. He was explicit that none of those targets carry any weight if the monthly structure gives way, which loops the entire argument back to the single condition in his opening line. The method is deliberately slow: monthly candles filter the noise that had commentators asking whether the rally was canceled, and support, once defined, is judged at the close rather than at the low of a move.

A Test With a Deadline

Read as a whole, the piece is less a forecast than a test with a deadline. The load-bearing record is the analyst's own X post, which sets out the condition and the targets in one place, so each monthly close can be checked against it as it prints. Our reading is that the thesis carries a built-in buffer: a single monthly close under $1.20 does not invalidate it, only a sustained decline does, a nuance easy to lose in a fast tape. What we will watch is how the order book absorbs supply near $1.20 as the month runs down. Readers weighing entries can consult our guide to where and how to buy XRP. Our XRP coverage recently followed the token's loss of the 50-day moving average, and the shorter-term XRP technical analysis levels will keep moving under this monthly framework. The furthest condition in the ladder, the Valhalla scenario above $15, comes with no timetable and no measured distance; it stands or falls with the same $1.20 close that anchors everything beneath it.