ChartNerd Flags XRP Death Cross That Preceded 30% Drop

Death Cross on the Daily Chart

The XRP price holds near $1.33 on Wednesday, up 2.6% over the past 24 hours, and two technical readings now pull in opposite directions. Analyst ChartNerd, in a post on X, flagged a death cross between the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages on the daily chart of XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger blockchain, on October 19. A death cross forms when the faster moving average, which weights recent prices more heavily, closes below the slower one; the opposite of a golden cross, it is read as a late confirmation that a downtrend may be underway. XRP has spent the days since unable to reclaim either average, and ChartNerd warns the token could slide back below $1 if the earlier episode repeats. The XRP chart's precedent is specific: the last comparable cross, observed between May and August, preceded a fall from around $1.40 to below $1, a decline of roughly 30%. The token then rebounded to $1.70 in August and gave back 20% to reach $1.60 in September, before this month's signal re-fired. XRP has lost about 15% over the past four weeks. ChartNerd handles the parallel with care: the prior drop shows what this signal did once, not a promise the same script runs again. In his reading, the next move depends on whether XRP can climb back above the short-term moving averages; a sustained recovery keeps a rebound available, while continued rejection beneath them would extend the downside. Reclaiming those averages, in this framework, is the test that separates a rebound from another leg lower. A counterpoint sits on the other side of the chart: Ali Martinez reports that the TD Sequential indicator, which traders use to time possible trend reversals, printed a buy setup on XRP's 3-day chart.

Our own support and resistance scoring places the strongest floor beneath the market at $1.2579, a level scored 99 out of 100 where several indicators converge, and the nearest resistance at $1.3450, scored 96 out of 100, just above Wednesday's spot price of $1.33. Both levels carry strong scores, the heaviest on either side of the market. The $1.2579 floor sits close to the $1.25 threshold both analysts watch, which gives this week's debate a concrete line. Positioning carries no strong lean: open interest stands near $942 million and the long/short account ratio reads 3.39, with 77.2% of accounts on the long side, while the composite trend reading is sideways. An earlier COINOTAG note flagged the $1.38 resistance after an oversold rebound, and the running XRP technical analysis tracks both sides of that range.

The $1.25 Line

The opposing signal has its own record. The same TD Sequential setup appeared three times before on this timeframe, and each was followed by a rebound of 31%, 24% and 18% in turn. He ties the outcome to a single level: $1.25. Holding it, he argues, would set up a recovery toward $1.40, while a break below could push the price toward $0.98, where XRP traded in August. That August floor was followed within days by a surge of about 70%, though the rally eventually lost its strength. The market tested $1.25 over the weekend, and the price has not fully recovered from that test; traders watching the week will measure each daily close against it. Risk would build, Martinez adds, if large holders keep taking profits. On-chain tracking shows that XRP whale wallets hold 46.87 billion tokens, the most since November 2022. Supply adds another variable: Ripple's escrow unlock of 1 billion XRP on November 1 approaches, adding scheduled issuance to any whale selling. The ledger's consensus mechanism settles these releases without mining, so new supply reaches the market mechanically rather than through competitive issuance. The $1.2579 floor on our composite matches Martinez's threshold, which is why both readings treat it as the week's pivot. With the daily chart arguing for lower prices and the 3-day chart for a bounce, this is a market where doing your own research (DYOR) matters more than following a single signal. The reading above holds only while $1.25 survives. A confirmed daily close below it would shift the working scenario from a rebound toward $1.40 to the $0.98 drawdown Martinez outlined, and whale profit-taking would only add to the pressure.