Weekly-Chart Analyst Egrag Puts XRP's Most Likely Range at $12-13

161.8% of Wave One on the Weekly Chart

Egrag, a chart analyst whose published XRP work runs on weekly candles reaching back to 2018, the year the ICO cycle peaked and XRP printed its all-time high, set out his long-term case in a November 4 post on X. The chart he posted names $12-13 as the range he rates most likely for the asset that the XRP Ledger, a layer-1 blockchain protocol, settles, with a one-line thesis attached: “only macro bullishness is visible.” He notes the chart went to his subscribers first, on November 1, three days before the public post. Long-term, in his framing, describes the multi-year weekly trend rather than the current swing.

The $12-13 figure rests on a specific calculation. Egrag applies Elliott wave theory, which reads long market trends as a fixed sequence of motive and corrective waves, to the weekly series and counts the third wave as heading for 161.8% of the first wave's length. He is explicit about what the number does and does not mean: 161.8% compares wave lengths, measures where the third wave would land if the structure holds, and implies nothing about the odds of reaching the target. The same chart draws the road further out, to $27 in the early 2030s.

Two nearer marks share the chart. Egrag plots $0.95 below the market and $1.80-2.00 above it, and he names the higher band as the range that would confirm the first real signs of strength. His counsel to followers sits oddly beside a double-digit target: he compares XRP trading to buying a car, furnishing a home or purchasing property, and urges a consistent strategy and capital protection over the attempt to catch every rising leg. The analyst drawing $27 paths is the same one telling his audience not to stake the house on them.

$1.25 Spot, $11.36 Million in Liquidations

The market underneath those bands is a different picture. Market data put the XRP price at $1.25, down 4.20% across 24 hours, at the reading taken at 20:13 UTC on November 5; live monitoring since then shows the 24-hour decline steepening to 6.8%. The two figures are stamps on the same decline, one taken when the reading was filed and one current. Derivatives data gives the selling a direction. Liquidations across XRP futures totaled roughly $11.36 million, and $10.83 million of that fell on long positions, against $528,640 from shorts. Nearly every forced exit came from traders positioned for the upside, an imbalance that fits a market leaning on the bullish side of its recent range.

A shorter-term count defines the nearer battleground. More Crypto Online argued in a November 4 post that a sustained breakout can only be treated as confirmed once five consecutive rising waves print above $1.34, the resistance ceiling where earlier advances stalled. Five waves up is the Elliott signature of an impulse, the structure that tells a wave counter an advance carries real momentum rather than a corrective bounce. The condition is deliberately separate from the $12-13 scenario: it asks whether the present leg is trending at all, not where the trend ends years out.

Below the market, the demand structure is documented from this year's own trading. The zone between $1.00 and $1.10 absorbed selling twice, in August and September 2026, before a rebound carried the token to $1.69. Buyers who defended that ground before were rewarded, which is what gives the level its weight in this drawdown. A decisive loss of $1.24 would put that twice-tested zone next in line, a setup that echoes the earlier sideways-range break toward $1.26 while perpetual funding stayed positive. COINOTAG's XRP technical analysis maps the full level stack against live price action.

Two Clocks, One $1.34 Trigger

The tension here is not bulls against bears but two clocks running at once. Egrag's $12-13 range and the $27 tail describe a weekly structure that would have to hold for years, while the last 24 hours, a 4.20% drop, long-side liquidations near $11 million and a slide toward $1.24, ran on the daily clock. Long-range chart methods, from moving averages to wave counts, describe structure rather than dates, and the field of XRP forecasts runs from Standard Chartered's $28 call to Claude AI's $48-75 scenario. Until five waves up print above $1.34, the long counts stay drawings, and the liquidation ledger shows the long side already paying to be early. One disclosure belongs beside the chart: Egrag writes for followers who track him for XRP positioning advice, an interest readers can weigh.