XRP Holds the $1.24–$1.32 Demand Zone With Its Lower-High Sequence Intact

Update 10:08 UTC: The recovery path is also longer than the levels already mapped: after $1.32, the next hurdles sit at $1.38, near the 200-day moving average, and then $1.40, with $1.60 and the $1.80–$2.00 resistance band still above.

Demand Zone Near $1.30 Absorbs the Slide

XRP has traded down into the $1.24–$1.32 demand zone that underpinned September's advance, after a rebound that took shape near $1.40 failed to hold and gave back more of that month's recovery. The pullback has read as slow distribution rather than capitulation driven by FUD: consecutive bearish daily candles, each closing inside the zone, with sellers in control as the market returns to the region that launched September's strong move. The XRP price stood at $1.31 at the time of writing on Monday, 2026-10-19, up 1.2% over the past 24 hours, so the tape sits inside the zone rather than beneath it. That location matters because of how the market behaved there before. The September base is the reference point for the entire daily structure. The advance out of that base began in this region, and the first test of it produced a forceful response; this time buyers have yet to answer in kind, and buying interest has not rebuilt in the order book the way it did then. Stabilization followed by a sustained reclaim of $1.32 would give the first evidence that demand is returning, and a recovery from there would meet the $1.38–$1.42 resistance area where the previous rebound ran out. Chasing that move on FOMO alone, before the reclaim is confirmed, is the scenario the chart does not yet support. The downside map is stated just as plainly: continued weakness through the lower boundary around $1.24 would undermine the September base and raise the risk of a deeper correction, with the next highlighted daily support sitting near $1.11–$1.17. Holding demand is the essential task right now; producing the bullish follow-through a reversal requires is the part still missing.

Our composite support and resistance scoring, which rates each level from the indicators that converge on it, puts the strongest confluence inside the zone at $1.2576, scored 100 out of 100, where the lower Bollinger band, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and a high-volume node meet. Overhead, the level at $1.3509, where the R2 pivot and the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud sit, scores 91 out of 100 and stands above the price at $1.3052. The wider readings agree with the daily picture: an RSI at 36.83, a bearish MACD signal and a classified downtrend. Positioning leans crowded on one side, with open interest near $911.6 million, funding at 0.0071% and a long/short account ratio of 3.10, so a failure of the zone would force a large long side to reprice quickly (as of 23:43 UTC).

The 4-Hour Channel Caps Each Recovery

The shorter-timeframe structure explains why the zone is being tested at all. The 4-hour chart shows XRP trading within a descending channel since the decline began, with each recovery attempt stalling beneath the channel's midpoint; the latest leg down has carried the price into the $1.27–$1.31 support zone that sits against the channel's lower boundary. That confluence of channel floor and prior demand is the sort of setup that attracts bids, and a short-term rebound from here would surprise no one reading the tape. What it would not yet do is change the structure: to interrupt the bearish sequence, XRP first has to reclaim $1.31 and then the descending midpoint around $1.32–$1.33. Beyond that sit the recent $1.34–$1.35 swing highs, then the channel's upper boundary near $1.39–$1.40, which is also where the failed rebound left sellers positioned. The channel itself has defined the decline, which is why every rally so far has produced a lower high rather than a change in trend. Sentiment has been moving on its own schedule: traders on Kalshi lifted the year-end $2 odds on XRP to 24% in a single day, and Ripple Prime has taken traditional-asset perpetual swaps to more than 100 markets, both developments landing while price drifted sideways rather than trended. If buyers fail to defend $1.27, the earlier wick lows around $1.25 come back into view, and a sustained break under both the zone and the channel edge would point to selling pressure that is accelerating rather than drifting. Until the sequence of lower highs breaks, rallies remain exposed to renewed supply, with bounces at risk of being sold as exit liquidity by holders still carrying positions from higher levels.

The reading we take is that the market has done the defending but not the reversing. Price is holding between the $1.27 shelf whose loss would hand the initiative back to sellers, and the $1.32 midpoint whose reclaim would be the first concrete evidence against the downtrend; our XRP technical analysis page tracks both levels as they update. A daily close through $1.32, followed by acceptance above it, is the condition that would change the picture; anything short of that keeps the burden of proof with buyers. What the slide has not changed is the sequence itself: lower highs and lower lows still stack down from $1.40, bounces keep stalling below the channel's midpoint, and until that pattern breaks, the demand zone near $1.30 continues to do the deciding.

The same-day coverage of the slide adds one judgment on what would actually count as a turn: analysts argue that defense of the $1.24–$1.32 demand zone, not the reclaim of resistance, is the near-term priority, and that even if a short-term bounce appears, it is too early to read it as a trend change so long as the sequence of lower highs on the daily chart continues. The report frames the outlook as resting entirely on how strongly buying interest flows into the zone, with a stable recovery of $1.32 treated as the base a rebound would need before the $1.38–$1.42 area, where the previous rally failed, comes back into play. On the downside, the same reading repeats the warning that losing $1.27 would likely send price back to the prior low near $1.25, and that a break below the descending channel's lower edge would point to selling pressure strengthening rather than easing.

Later same-day coverage adds a first bullish reading to the tape: XRP printed a green daily candle after sliding from the $1.55 region to a low near $1.25 through most of October, the first sign of buyer strength since September. The $1.25–$1.30 area absorbed the selling and left an extended lower wick, the same zone that held before September's rally to $1.65. The immediate test sits at the moving average near $1.33, where a daily close would confirm the bounce, opening the $1.37–$1.38 cluster of moving averages and then $1.45. RSI near 40 is weak but not oversold, though volume stayed low, so the move risks being a pause rather than a reversal; losing $1.25 would put $1.20 back in play.

Further same-day coverage adds detail on what sits between the zone and the bullish case. Cumulative selling via volume delta has reached roughly $2 billion across tracked markets, a measure that aggressive sell flow has persisted even as price bounced. The recovery path is also longer than the levels already mapped: after $1.32, the next hurdles sit at $1.38, near the 200-day moving average, and then $1.40, with $1.60 and the $1.80–$2.00 resistance band still above. The $1.36–$1.37 retest and a $1.45 reclaim are flagged as additional thresholds before any run at $2 becomes the working scenario. On the downside, a break below $1.24 would weaken the September base, and a move under $1.20 would open downside risk toward $1.00.