XRP MVRV Sits at -11.75% as Santiment Flags Limited Downside

Underwater Holders Cap the Downside

XRP (XRP) gave back part of its September rally on Thursday, trading near $1.50 and down roughly 6.3% over 24 hours, yet the token still holds a weekly gain of more than 15.6% that tracked the broader altcoin advance — a run that earlier pushed XRP above $1.60 for the first time since February. Underneath the pullback, holder data is flashing an unusually constructive setup. On-chain analytics from Santiment show the token's 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio — the average unrealized profit or loss of coins active over a year — sitting near -11.75%, meaning the typical wallet in that cohort remains underwater from the last bear market. For context, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Chainlink (LINK) hover just above zero on the same measure, while Dogecoin (DOGE) sits deeper at -19.26%. A depressed MVRV historically caps downside because fewer holders carry profits to unload into strength, and Santiment's commentary noted that buying during that kind of pain has tended to deliver better long-term entries. Derivatives confirm the turn: Binance XRP futures open interest has climbed to nearly $600 million — a January-level reading — and now sits decisively above its 180-day moving average near $445 million, with positive funding rates indicating buyers, not shorts, are driving the build-up.

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Coinbase Premium Fades Into October

Not every gauge of United States demand is keeping pace with the funds, however. The spread between XRP's Coinbase price and its Binance equivalent — a premium traders treat as a proxy for American spot buying — has compressed to roughly 0.0055%, effectively zero. Analysts who track the metric read the convergence as evidence that the rebound has been carried by futures desks and ETF allocators rather than by a wave of fresh US retail orders. A sustained Coinbase premium would be the confirmation signal, and it has not arrived. Options markets are braced for movement regardless: Coinbase pricing already factors in an 8.9% implied move through Sept. 27. The calendar then adds the harder caution. XRP has closed October lower in 8 of the past 13 years, averaging a -5.14% monthly return, and it fell 11.9% in October 2025. With a week of September left, the token enters its statistically weakest month on the back of a double-digit weekly run — precisely the kind of stretched setup where underwater, cycle-scarred holders may sell into strength rather than add exposure.

AI Models Favor XRP Over PI for Q4

The tension between bullish data and a hostile seasonal record has spilled into the AI-model debate over fourth-quarter performance. When prompted to compare XRP with Pi Network's PI — which has risen 8% over the past week but remains below $0.10 — ChatGPT judged XRP the more defensible Q4 pick, citing the token's already substantial valuation and pointing to increased adoption, Ripple ecosystem growth and sustained demand through investment products. Perplexity reached a similar conclusion, calling XRP the likelier relative outperformer while describing PI as carrying the higher lottery-ticket upside if its ecosystem gains traction, with PI's fate hinging on further mainnet migrations and milestones from its core team. Both models anchored on the same hard datapoint: spot XRP ETFs have now posted 10 consecutive weeks of net inflows, with cumulative allocations above $1.7 billion. XRP also remains far below its 2018 all-time high, leaving long-term upside on the table, and chartists are more aggressive still — analyst Peter Brandt has mapped a $5.40 target for XRP on what he views as a multi-year breakout. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bybit.

The $1.75 Billion ETF Streak Faces October

Whale accumulation has emerged as a fresh driver behind the advance. Santiment data shared by analyst Ali Martinez shows wallets in the tracked large-holder cohort added roughly 1.54 billion XRP within a 96-hour window — about $2.2 billion at prevailing prices — lifting their combined balances from around 8.27 billion to 9.81 billion tokens. The buying started while XRP traded near $1.40 after the market reaction to the failed CLARITY Act vote, and price subsequently climbed from roughly $1.41 on September 20 to test above $1.65. Institutional demand also kept flowing: U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $14.89 million in daily net inflows on September 24, per SoSoValue, pushing cumulative net inflows to approximately $1.76 billion, with Bitwise leading at $9.91 million and Franklin Templeton adding $4.98 million.

(as of 10:51 UTC) Our reading of COINOTAG's 42-indicator composite puts the hardest fact in an otherwise constructive picture at the level structure itself: XRP trades at $1.5557, up 5.95% over 24 hours, with the deepest floor at $1.4303 scoring 85/100 (STRONG) on S2, the BB middle band, SMA 20 and a low-volume node, and firmer shelves above it at $1.4961 (80/100, S1, the Ichimoku Tenkan, a flip from resistance and a high-volume node), $1.3427 (77/100, EMA 200, SMA 200, Supertrend and VWAP) and $1.2588 (63/100), with a moderate $1.1382 (55/100) below. Overhead, resistance stacks at $1.5714 (75/100, a flip from support, R1, the BB upper band and the 0.114 Fibonacci) and $1.6678 (72/100, R3, the 0.000 Fibonacci, Keltner upper and Donchian upper), making the $1.5714 line the immediate gate. Derivatives lean bullish rather than strained: funding sits at 0.0065%, open interest stands at $1,140,258,750, and the long/short account ratio of 2.85 shows 74.0% of accounts positioned long. RSI at 63.24, a bullish MACD signal and an uptrend classification back the read, though a Fear & Greed Index of 71/100 (Greed) argues for some restraint. The test ahead is narrow: a close above $1.5714 opens the path toward $1.6678, while rejection there would likely send price back to the well-defended $1.4961 support.