XRP (XRP) MVRV Sits at -11.75% as Santiment Flags Limited Downside

Underwater Holders Cap the Downside

XRP (XRP) gave back part of its September rally on Thursday, trading near $1.50 and down roughly 6.3% over 24 hours, yet the token still holds a weekly gain of more than 15.6% that tracked the broader altcoin advance — a run that earlier pushed XRP above $1.60 for the first time since February. Underneath the pullback, holder data is flashing an unusually constructive setup. On-chain analytics from Santiment show the token's 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio — the average unrealized profit or loss of coins active over a year — sitting near -11.75%, meaning the typical wallet in that cohort remains underwater from the last bear market. For context, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Chainlink (LINK) hover just above zero on the same measure, while Dogecoin (DOGE) sits deeper at -19.26%. A depressed MVRV historically caps downside because fewer holders carry profits to unload into strength, and Santiment's commentary noted that buying during that kind of pain has tended to deliver better long-term entries. Derivatives confirm the turn: Binance XRP futures open interest has climbed to nearly $600 million — a January-level reading — and now sits decisively above its 180-day moving average near $445 million, with positive funding rates indicating buyers, not shorts, are driving the build-up.

Santiment's side-by-side of 365-day MVRV readings across major crypto assets

https://x.com/SantimentData/status/2102816643046932729

Coinbase Premium Fades Into October

Not every gauge of United States demand is keeping pace with the funds, however. The spread between XRP's Coinbase price and its Binance equivalent — a premium traders treat as a proxy for American spot buying — has compressed to roughly 0.0055%, effectively zero. Analysts who track the metric read the convergence as evidence that the rebound has been carried by futures desks and ETF allocators rather than by a wave of fresh US retail orders. A sustained Coinbase premium would be the confirmation signal, and it has not arrived. Options markets are braced for movement regardless: Coinbase pricing already factors in an 8.9% implied move through Sept. 27. The calendar then adds the harder caution. XRP has closed October lower in 8 of the past 13 years, averaging a -5.14% monthly return, and it fell 11.9% in October 2025. With a week of September left, the token enters its statistically weakest month on the back of a double-digit weekly run — precisely the kind of stretched setup where underwater, cycle-scarred holders may sell into strength rather than add exposure.

AI Models Favor XRP Over PI for Q4

The tension between bullish data and a hostile seasonal record has spilled into the AI-model debate over fourth-quarter performance. When prompted to compare XRP with Pi Network's PI — which has risen 8% over the past week but remains below $0.10 — ChatGPT judged XRP the more defensible Q4 pick, citing the token's already substantial valuation and pointing to increased adoption, Ripple ecosystem growth and sustained demand through investment products. Perplexity reached a similar conclusion, calling XRP the likelier relative outperformer while describing PI as carrying the higher lottery-ticket upside if its ecosystem gains traction, with PI's fate hinging on further mainnet migrations and milestones from its core team. Both models anchored on the same hard datapoint: spot XRP ETFs have now posted 10 consecutive weeks of net inflows, with cumulative allocations above $1.7 billion. XRP also remains far below its 2018 all-time high, leaving long-term upside on the table, and chartists are more aggressive still — analyst Peter Brandt has mapped a $5.40 target for XRP on what he views as a multi-year breakout. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bybit.

The $1.75 Billion ETF Streak Faces October

Our reading of the primary flow record behind the streak is that $1.75 billion in cumulative net inflows across 11 consecutive green weeks is the hardest fact in an otherwise mixed picture: cost-basis data limits downside, derivatives show leveraged buyers returning, but US spot demand is flat and October's seasonal record argues for restraint. At the latest check, XRP traded lower again, down about 7% over 24 hours. The test ahead is narrow. If Coinbase spot buyers finally join the ETF bid, the three bullish signals align and the streak extends into a 12th week; if October's history repeats, the funds' consistency will face its first serious test in a historically hostile month.