Bitrue Research Flags 70.6% 90-Day Recovery Rate for Oversold XRP

Bitrue Research Counts 18 Oversold Signals Since 2023

The XRP price has spent the past week under sustained selling pressure, trading near $1.08 with its daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge that flags unusually heavy selling below 30, deep in oversold territory. A report from the Bitrue Research Institute argues that history favors a rebound over the next 90 days, even if the road there is likely to be painful. The study, published as a research paper, examines every occasion since January 2023 on which XRP's daily RSI dropped below 35, a threshold the token has hit 18 times in under four years. Seventeen of those signals carried complete 90-day outcome data, and 12 of them ended in gains, a 70.6% success rate, while the median return across those windows was +9.1%, against +3% for all trading days in the sample. The catch is drawdown risk: the median deepest decline inside those 90-day windows was 21.8%, so investors who bought the signal often sat through further double-digit losses before any recovery arrived. Shorter horizons were far less reliable. The altcoin recovered within 30 days in only 11 of 18 cases, and the 60-day success rate was exactly 50%, little better than a coin flip. Market context decided most outcomes. Four of the five failed 90-day recoveries clustered inside the extended bear phase that ran from October 2025 into January 2026, when XRP fell alongside the wider market. Bitrue's analysts put the caveat directly: an oversold reading confirms selling pressure has been intense, not that it is over. That framing matters for anyone sizing an entry here: the base rate rewards patience across a full quarter, not timing at the moment the indicator flashes. For readers following our XRP topic hub, the dataset is the first statistical counterweight to a downtrend that has run all year.

RSI Hits 26.64 as ETF Outflows Mount

Current market data adds weight to the report's caution. The token's tape into the second week of November gives the historical argument its hardest test yet. XRP's daily RSI fell to 26.64 on November 9, and the price remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a configuration that typically marks an established downtrend rather than a base. That reading falls squarely inside the sub-35 band the study uses as its trigger, which is why the report frames the coming quarter as a live test of its dataset. Fund flows offer no counterweight: US spot XRP ETFs logged roughly $10.4 million of outflows on November 9, and our earlier coverage traced the largest single-day outflow since March 9 to Bitwise's $10.42 million redemption. Buying pressure is just as thin. The latest 20-day volume ratio stands at 0.45, so falling sessions drew more than double the trading volume of rising ones, a distribution pattern rather than accumulation. Against that backdrop, the study identifies three price levels that frame the next 90 days. A daily close below $1.036 would open the path toward $1 and potentially $0.93, the report's downside scenario. A sustained move above $1.18, confirmed by stronger buying volume, would indicate the recovery is gathering force rather than merely stabilizing the decline. Above that, the $1.32 to $1.48 band stands as the next major resistance zone if buyers ever regain control of the tape. These thresholds sit close to the $1.05 support test that followed the hot October CPI print, marginally above the study's bearish case. Traders who want a running read on momentum can follow our XRP technical analysis page, which tracks the same indicator family the study draws on. The near-term picture mirrors the report's own warning: oversold describes the intensity of selling, not its conclusion.

COINOTAG's read is that the 70.6% figure deserves more skepticism than headline treatments give it. The median 21.8% drawdown inside winning windows means the signal rewarded patience across a full quarter, not precise entries. The flow and volume data show no committed buyer yet: ETF redemptions continued on November 9 and the 20-day volume ratio of 0.45 says rallies are being sold. The failures in the sample also cluster in exactly the environment XRP occupies now: a downtrend that has cut the price by more than half in a year, a slide Ripple's David Schwartz addressed publicly when denying any secret XRP plan. A rebound through $1.18 on rising volume would be the first confirmation; anything softer, including FOMO-driven bids near current levels, carries the same drawdown risk the dataset documents.