XRP (XRP) Reclaims $1.35 as 200-Day Moving Average Marks Key Technical Shift

XRP Holds Above 200-Day MA

XRP (XRP) is attempting to build an entirely new market structure after its explosive August breakout, with the token now trading near $1.42 following a brief push to roughly $1.70 during the initial surge. The rejection from that local high has cooled the first phase of the rally, yet the overall technical picture remains far stronger than it was at the start of the month. Chart data on XRP/USDT shows the asset still holding above all four major moving averages on the daily timeframe — the most significant being the 200-day moving average, which sits at $1.35. XRP spent the majority of 2026 below that indicator, so the recent reclaim represents a meaningful long-term shift rather than a routine bounce. The breakout structure should hold as long as the $1.35–$1.40 zone stays intact; below that band, the advance risks becoming just another temporary spike. Shorter averages offer thinner support, with the 50-day and 100-day averages near $1.20 and $1.13 respectively, and the 20-day EMA around $1.24. For readers new to the asset, our XRP glossary guide explains how the token functions as Ripple's cross-border settlement asset. Volume adds weight to the move: the breakout coincided with one of the largest volume expansions the chart has printed in months, though trading activity has since faded as price consolidated — a sign the initial wave of aggressive buying has subsided rather than a wholesale exit.

RSI Cools From Overbought

Momentum readings reinforce the consolidation narrative. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum oscillator that flags overbought conditions above 70 — climbed above 80 during the breakout and has since settled near 69. That pullback from overbought territory is constructive, suggesting overheating is unwinding without the trend breaking. Immediate resistance sits at $1.50, and a daily close above that level would reopen the path toward $1.60 and the recent $1.70 peak. Still, another vertical rally is not required: a period of sideways digestion below $1.50 would not necessarily damage the bullish setup given how extended the token became after the fast climb. Those tracking sentiment across the broader altcoin market will note that peers show similar cooling — Stellar's RSI has slid toward 54 after topping 70 — indicating the August surge broadly pressed short-term momentum extremes. Traders looking to act on these levels can review our guide on where and how to buy XRP, though position sizing matters more than usual while the market pauses between resistance tests. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

Beyond the chart, a fresh set of catalysts is shaping September expectations. XRP closed August with gains of roughly 35%, and historical data shows the token finished September higher in each of the past four years, with advances of 46.2%, 0.42%, 7.98% and 2.49% respectively. The key date this year is September 15, when the US Senate is scheduled to hold its final vote on the Clarity Act — legislation that could establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. Institutional demand has also strengthened, with spot XRP funds recording net inflows of $127.34 million during August, lifting cumulative inflows to $1.64 billion and assets under management to about $1.49 billion. Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger has surpassed 5 billion total transactions, and the fourth quarter has historically been among the token's strongest periods.

Behind the pullback, the political catalysts behind the August surge have come into sharper focus. The rally originally fired off a broken falling wedge pattern, then accelerated after President Trump pressed Congress on the CLARITY Act during a White House crypto meeting that featured Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse — footage of the appearance was shared live by Ripple community account RippleXity on August 19. Leveraged shorts were caught off guard, fueling a squeeze that lost momentum once buyers failed to defend the $1.50–$1.55 zone. Traders now frame three scenarios: reclaiming $1.50 and breaking $1.63 opens a run toward $1.85 and potentially $2, a base case keeps price ranging between $1.23 and $1.50, while losing $1.23 would expose $1.12 and possibly the $1.00 area.

Further context on XRP's monthly trajectory has emerged. According to market data, XRP entered August having closed the previous four Augusts in the red, with double-digit losses in 2022 and 2023, and dipped below $1.00 several times early in the month — its first sub-$1.00 readings in nearly two years — before the 70% surge between August 19 and August 22. As of August 29, the token remains up roughly 33% for the month, though the final tally falls short of the 35% figure cited earlier amid a mild pullback in the last sessions. On the regulatory front, a Senate passage of the market structure bill on September 15 would formally establish XRP's federal commodity status, removing remaining regulatory uncertainty. Developers have also begun a security audit of the XRPL lending protocol V1.1, while historical fourth-quarter average returns of 133.3% — the strongest of any quarter — add a seasonal tailwind if September holds its pattern.

Adding a market-expectations dimension to the consolidation, Polymarket traders heavily favor range-bound trade into September, assigning 81% combined probability to XRP closing September 1 between $1.30 and $1.50 — 45% for the $1.30–$1.40 band and 36% for $1.40–$1.50. Moves outside that zone are seen as unlikely: 11% odds for $1.20–$1.30, 7% for $1.50–$1.60, and just 1–2% for higher brackets, with sub-$1.00 or above-$1.90 outcomes each priced at 1%. The probability-weighted implied price sits near $1.40. Separately, the report notes spot XRP ETF cumulative net inflows have reached roughly $1.55 billion, and institutional product development continues, including a benchmark change for the 21Shares XRP ETF. At the time of writing, XRP traded near $1.39, down more than 5% on the week, but still above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $1.14 and $1.28, with the 14-day RSI at 65.75.

(as of 14:03 UTC) COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $1.4066 resistance at 88/100 — a STRONG ceiling built on the confluence of the Value Area High, a high-volume node, the Keltner Upper band and the POC. Below, the engine scores the $1.3430 support at 97/100, driven by the 0.500 Fibonacci, the Ichimoku Kijun, a low-volume node and the ATR Lower band, with further backing from the 71/100 $1.2681 level where EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 200 and SMA 200 converge. Spot price currently sits at $1.4086, up 1.54% over 24 hours, placing price just above the high-conviction ceiling while RSI reads 65.60 and MACD stays bullish in an uptrend. Derivatives positioning leans crowded: funding at 0.0069% is mildly positive, open interest stands at $986.4 million, and the long/short account ratio of 2.77 (73.5% long) shows retail heavily skewed bullish — a setup vulnerable to a squeeze lower if the breakout fails. With the Fear & Greed Index at 69 (Greed), the bullish scenario requires a daily close above $1.4066 to target the 71/100-scored $1.5472 resistance; a rejection there that flips $1.4066 into failed support would invalidate the near-term bullish thesis.