XRP Records 21-Month Low After $1 Break

XRP News

XRP, the cross-border settlement asset tracked through the XRP hub, broke under the psychologically important $1 level this weekend and printed its lowest mark in 21 months. The move extends a painful drawdown within the wider bear market, leaving the asset roughly 70% below its all-time-high set 13 months earlier. Market participants are now debating whether the breakdown marks a final washout or the beginning of a deeper leg lower. Several AI-model outputs reviewed by COINOTAG assign a high probability to continued weakness: ChatGPT and Gemini placed the odds of a September close below $1 at 75%, while Claude estimated 65%. The models framed $1 as a crowded stop-loss zone, meaning a decisive breach could trigger clustered defensive orders. Technical readings reinforce that pressure. XRP is trading below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, and the daily relative strength index sat near 36, close to oversold territory but not yet at exhaustion. Binance futures data showed the taker buy/sell ratio at 0.86, the lowest since May, indicating aggressive sellers are outpacing buyers. Elevated open interest adds the risk that another slip could force rapid liquidations. Some analysts warned that losing the $0.94 to $0.95 area could open a path toward $0.80 to $0.85. Model projections varied widely: ChatGPT floated a $0.78 floor, Claude pointed to $0.80, and Gemini offered a far lower $0.55 scenario. Trader CasiTrades described $0.94 as an accumulation zone and projected a possible bottom near $0.87. Still, larger holders appeared active: wallets added more than 380 million XRP over seven days, and accounts holding at least 1 million XRP increased by 32 over three months, according to on-chain data. Network activity also improved, with daily active addresses averaging 35,700 in August versus 26,400 the prior month, although new-address growth remained flat. That split leaves near-term direction uncertain until demand absorbs the supply.

The deeper question for traders is whether XRP's breakdown below $1 represents capitulation rather than another distribution phase. After months of circling the $1 threshold, the altcoin slipped through it several times during the past week, confirming a broad bear-market structure that has developed for almost a year. The asset has produced repeated lower highs and lower lows, with monthly closes mostly negative and recovery attempts failing to hold. In a separate assessment, ChatGPT argued that the bottom may already be close because the correction has been both long and severe. Such probabilistic reads are now common among desks using an AI trading bot to scan market structure. The model pointed to the size of the decline and the duration of the downtrend as conditions that often precede a durable base. It also noted that large-holder accumulation has continued: wallets holding at least 1 million XRP rose by 32 over the past three months, a signal that bigger investors have not abandoned the position entirely. A network-usage snapshot described daily active addresses climbing from under 24,000 to more than 43,500 within roughly a month, suggesting engagement did not collapse alongside price. That figure, however, needs care: the newer August average noted above was 35,700, still above the prior month but below the short-term spike. ChatGPT remained reluctant to declare the bottom complete. It highlighted the same Binance taker buy/sell ratio at 0.86 as evidence that aggressive sellers continue to control execution flow on the world's largest crypto exchange. In practical terms, taker ratio measures whether market orders are leaning toward buys or sells; a reading under 1 favors sellers. Until that flow improves and XRP reclaims $1 with conviction, the model's stance is cautious: a macro bottom is plausible, but the next support zone may still need to be tested. A confirmed turn would likely require stronger spot buying, not only optimistic on-chain pockets.

COINOTAG's analysis ties these two signals together: primary on-chain records show large XRP wallets increased by 32 over three months and more than 380 million XRP was accumulated over seven days, while Binance derivatives data puts the taker buy/sell ratio at 0.86. The first record shows long-horizon positioning by large holders; the second shows immediate market orders remain seller-led. That combination often appears late in a bear market, where accumulation begins before liquidity improves. The key confirmation is not another AI projection. It is whether XRP can regain $1 on stronger taker demand and hold it through a volatile retest.