XRP Retreats to $1.40 as $500M Long Liquidations Expose Overbought Risk

Whale Inflows and $500M Liquidations Test Rally

XRP (XRP) has pulled back to the $1.40 range, down 2.61% over the past 24 hours to $1.4066, after a 72-hour surge of roughly 70% pushed the token to a seven-month high of $1.6963. The retreat follows a wave of large whale deposits to Binance and a $500 million cascade of long-position liquidations that has cooled the recent XRP breakout. On-chain data shows whale addresses sent 1.451 billion XRP to Binance over the past 30 days while withdrawing only 231 million, leaving a net inflow of 1.22 billion tokens that traders now watch for potential sell pressure. Derivatives data tells a similar story: open interest jumped 27% in a week to $3.5 billion before the flush, and the forced closure of leveraged longs two days after an earlier $33 million short squeeze signaled how crowded the move had become.

Despite the pullback, XRP spot ETFs have sustained momentum, with inflows extending to nine consecutive trading days through August 25. The most recent daily net inflow was $23.87 million, lifting cumulative net inflows to a record $1.57 billion, equivalent to roughly 1.50% of total supply. The rally has also drawn unusually heavy participation from South Korean exchanges, alongside notable accumulation on Binance order books, with turnover out of Korea helping the token outperform other top-10 crypto assets. However, technical momentum is flashing caution: the 14-day relative strength index hovered near 85 at the peak before easing to around 75, still above the overbought threshold of 70, while the MACD continues to hold a bullish signal. Key support sits at $1.42, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and a daily close below that level could open a path toward $1.34, where the 200-day EMA and the 50% Fib retracement converge, according to market data.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the immediate $1.4139 resistance at 81/100, driven by the confluence of the Keltner Upper band, RSI overbought conditions, Value Area High and HVN, while the $1.3756 support scores 74/100, supported by Flip R→S, VWAP, ATR Lower and S2. Derivatives positioning shows a funding rate of 0.0059% with a long/short account ratio of 2.84, as 73.9% of traders remain long, and the Fear & Greed Index at 65/100 (Greed) reflects lingering risk appetite. Bulls need a daily close above $1.52 to revive the uptrend toward $1.64, while a sustained loss of the $1.42 support would invalidate that thesis and expose the $1.30–$1.36 demand zone.