XRP Two-Week RSI Hits Lowest Level in Its 13-Year History

Momentum Reading Below Every Prior Cycle

XRP (XRP) has just printed its weakest momentum reading on record: the token's two-week Relative Strength Index sits near 33.5, the lowest level in its 13-year trading history. The drop followed a sharp correction that left XRP, Ripple's cross-border settlement asset, more oversold on this timeframe than at any prior cycle trough — below the lows of the 2018 bear market, the 2020 COVID crash and the 2022 crypto winter. Analyst Cryptollica flagged the milestone in a chart shared on X, arguing the market has misread the moment: sentiment has collapsed and short-term price action looks broken, yet the long-term rising channel that has guided XRP through multiple cycles remains intact, with price resting near its lower boundary. EGRAG Crypto added supporting context, noting the two-month RSI has re-entered the same historical zone that preceded earlier bottoming processes — cycle behavior, in his view, matters more than the exact number. Not everyone is convinced a bottom is in. ChartNerd points out that XRP remains compressed between the 20-week EMA near $1.29 and 50-week EMA resistance around $1.52, warning that daily or weekly closes below $1.29 would put the $1.00 psychological level back in play — the 20-week retest, he writes, has to hold or the market dives.

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Binance Open Interest Down 32%

Derivatives data shows a market shedding leverage even as selling persists. Binance's XRP open interest — the total value of unsettled derivative positions — fell roughly 32% between Aug. 22 and Sept. 17, from about $323 million to $219 million, while price declined only around 11% over the same stretch. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha called the signal clear: traders are cutting derivative exposure while sell-side taker activity stays elevated across both futures and spot markets. Order-flow data sharpens the picture. Estimated spot CVD on centralized exchange venues slid from about negative $111 million to negative $2.1 billion, and Binance's perpetual CVD dropped from negative $361 million to negative $1 billion — meaning spot trading sell pressure deteriorated roughly three times faster than leveraged selling. The contraction briefly paused: on Sept. 6, open interest stood near $244 million after its seven-day change recovered to positive 1%, before the decline resumed. History offers a conditional silver lining — in past deleveraging phases, once excess leverage cleared and vulnerability to long-liquidation cascades fell, conditions for recovery improved. Taha adds that if short positions come to dominate the remaining book, funding rates could cool further or turn negative, easing the leverage imbalance.

ETF Flows Meet a Stalled CLARITY Act

Institutional flows kept building even as momentum washed out. Cumulative net inflows into US spot XRP ETFs surpassed $1.7 billion as of Sept. 9, and asset manager 21Shares has highlighted the asset's fixed supply, its utility and widening ETF access as structural supports — a trend that continued this week, when the Franklin Templeton XRP ETF booked a $3.5 million net inflow on Sept. 16. Regulation, however, remains the swing factor. On Sept. 15 the Senate voted 49-50 in the CLARITY Act cloture failure, leaving the proposed federal digital-asset market-structure framework stalled and its path uncertain. Ripple's position is that the failed vote changes nothing about XRP's existing legal standing in the United States, with the company pointing to continued demand across payments, stablecoins and institutional channels. Network activity underpins that claim: XRP Ledger transactions jumped 23.9% as fee burn ticked higher, evidence that utilization persists even as speculative positioning unwinds. The tension now defines the setup — record-low momentum set against still-growing institutional access and an unresolved regulatory calendar. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

The $1.3436 Ceiling Decides It

A fresh macro layer has been added to the setup: the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, from 3.75% to 4.00%, compounding the pressure from the stalled Senate vote on the market-structure bill. XRP climbed as high as $1.50 on Monday before sustained selling pushed it back to the $1.30 area, where buyers are defending the short-term moving-average support but have yet to generate upside momentum. On the daily chart, the token is testing the $1.25–$1.28 zone where the 50-day and 100-day EMAs cluster, while the 200-day EMA near $1.353 caps advances. Analysts note that only a daily close above the 200-day EMA would reopen the path toward the $1.90 resistance band, whereas a break of the near-term support cluster could extend the slide toward $1.00, leaving a cautious approach warranted.

Sentiment around the token has now drawn an unusually public bearish call: Dubai-based investor Royal Kane said on X he would never invest in XRP at its current stage, arguing the $81.68 billion market capitalization is already too large to leave room for outsized returns. Pointing to Solana's "Ethereum killer" era, Pepe's community growth and Zcash's adoption story, he urged traders instead to "find a coin with a compelling narrative for the coming years." Kane also claimed Ripple has "no products or revenue whatsoever" — though the privately held company publicly operates Ripple Payments, the RLUSD stablecoin and Ripple Prime, the brokerage formed via its Hidden Road acquisition, and Judge Analisa Torres' 2023 ruling still shields its programmatic exchange sales from securities classification. Notably, seven Senate Democrats have reopened CLARITY Act talks, calling the failed 49-50 cloture vote "not the end."

The contrarian case around the record-low RSI has drawn out further detail from the analyst behind the call. Cryptollica argued in extended comments that the market has delivered the pain while the long-term structure stays active, writing that sentiment destruction at historical extremes is exactly where asymmetry becomes interesting — adding that investors only seek certainty after the move is obvious, when the chart no longer "looks broken." A separate datapoint reinforces the "perfect buying opportunity" framing: among spot XRP ETFs, September 2 was the only red day in the past month and a half, with inflows uninterrupted otherwise. On the charting side, analyst Ali Martinez earlier flagged the week's push above $1.40, saying a sustained close above $1.38 would confirm a bullish resumption and open the door toward $1.60 — a target the rally approached near $1.50 before sellers took control.

(as of 08:53 UTC) COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine, which maps support and resistance confluence across 42 indicators, frames the range precisely. Nearest support at $1.3150 scores 88/100 — driven by the Swing Low, VWAP, a Bullish Engulfing and EMA 50 — while a secondary floor at $1.1382 rates 63/100, backed by the HVN, LVN, Fibo 0.786 and the Value Area Low. Overhead resistance at $1.3436 is the strongest level on the board at 99/100, anchored by Ichimoku Senkou A and B, the cloud top and Fibo 0.500. XRP changes hands at $1.3305, up 2.09% in 24 hours, with the daily RSI at 49.85, MACD bearish and the trend sideways. Positioning leans long on accounts: funding at 0.0070% and open interest near $884.5 million sit beside a long/short account ratio of 3.03 (75.2% long), while the Fear & Greed Index reads a mildly greedy 56. Holding $1.3150 keeps the bottom case alive; losing it exposes $1.1382. A break above $1.3436 is what buyers need to shift the balance.