XRP Whale Outflows on Binance Fall to $49.7 Million, a Five-Year Low

Update 03:03 UTC: New price-structure detail from the same flow assessment puts a supply-side level at $1.48.

Binance Whale Outflows at a Five-Year Low

XRP whale outflows from Binance have fallen to their lowest level in five years, with the 90-day moving average of withdrawals by large holders at $49.7 million as of October 20. Analyst Darkfost published the reading in an October 20 assessment of exchange flows, tracing the decline back to February 2025, when the same measure peaked at roughly $3.5 billion near the top of the previous cycle. The distance between the two figures is close to 99%, a drop of about 98.6%, and his record places current outflows at levels last observed in October 2021. The peak reading stood around 70 times above the latest one, and since both are dollar-denominated, a move in the token’s market price can shift the measure even when token volumes stay flat. The analyst tied the shift in outflow dynamics to XRP’s fall from its cycle peak near $3.30 and interprets the low as a sign that whale activity has cooled. He suggested major investors may be waiting for prices they consider more attractive before adding exposure, and compared present conditions with 2022 and 2023, when lower XRP prices coincided with heavier large-holder activity in his dataset. The altcoin traded near $1.30 on October 20, and market data from CoinGecko shows the XRP price in a 24-hour range of $1.29 to $1.32, a seven-day range of $1.26 to $1.38, a market capitalization near $82 billion and daily volume of roughly $1.28 billion. His observation covers one venue and a 90-day average, not every transaction in the wider XRP whale flows market.

@Darkfost_Coc · X post

Assessment of exchange flows.

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Resistance Stacks Between $1.33 and $1.37

Exchange outflows record tokens leaving a trading platform for external addresses, often into wallets whose owners control the private keys. Analysts sometimes read large withdrawals as evidence of accumulation, although a withdrawal alone does not establish who ultimately owns the tokens or whether a purchase took place. Transfers between an exchange’s internal and external wallets, custody arrangements and other operational movements can distort the data, so a decline in outflows does not prove large holders have stopped buying, and the 90-day window smooths isolated daily transfers. On the chart, the daily candlestick structure places XRP below its four major exponential moving averages: the 20-day at $1.3689, the 50-day at $1.3743, the 100-day at $1.3353 and the 200-day at $1.3742. Together they form a resistance band from about $1.33 to $1.37, while the Relative Strength Index sits at 36.49, under its signal average of 39.83 and above the oversold threshold of 30. Immediate support lies near $1.28, with lower zones at $1.20 to $1.25 and a conditional recovery scenario toward $1.45 to $1.50 on a decisive close above $1.38; the full level set is tracked in our XRP technical analysis. In flows elsewhere, U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.84 million in net withdrawals over the prior week, ending 13 consecutive weeks of inflows, then posted zero net flows on October 19. In a separate October 20 post, analyst Carolina described an accumulation zone forming on XRP’s long-term chart, named $0.50 to $0.60 as support in a deeper correction and sketched an incomplete inverse head-and-shoulders pattern near $1 with a conditional target around $2.80. On the network side, the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment is approaching activation around 09:34 UTC on October 23 after 29 of 35 trusted validators voted in favor, while the ledger’s lending protocol proposals, LendingProtocol and SingleAssetVault, remain short of the 29 votes required, at 19 and 21 respectively.

Our reading of the flow record is that a five-year low in outflows is a slow-moving condition, not a confirmation of accumulation on its own. Because the measure is dollar-denominated, part of its fall reflects XRP’s slide from the 2025 cycle high near $3.30 rather than any change in how many tokens are moving. With the price pinned under all four daily averages and the RSI below its signal line, the burden of proof rests with buyers until the $1.33 to $1.37 band gives way. The October 23 amendment activation offers a network-side marker independent of flows. As for follow-through, the record ends with the five-year low itself: Darkfost’s October 20 post documents the reading and nothing after it.

Follow-up details from Darkfost's post fill out the picture of the decline. In February 2025, when he marks the cycle top, daily outflows from Binance exceeded $10 billion on several occasions, alongside the $3.5 billion 90-day average already recorded. He attributes the slowdown to XRP's relative resilience in the bear market he describes: prices never fell far enough to trigger bulk accumulation the way 2022 and 2023 did. Looking ahead, he warned that whale demand failing to return could leave buying volume insufficient over the long term, while noting that trend reversals have sometimes occurred in periods when volume and interest thin out sharply, calling the reading an absolute rule no. Separately from the flow data, Ripple and the XRP Ledger Foundation jointly launched the official @XRP account on X with the message "Hello world. It was time," drawing tens of thousands of followers within hours and a welcome from CEO Brad Garlinghouse.

A follow-up report on the same reading adds a clarification on what the five-year low does and does not measure. Because the 90-day moving average pools roughly three months of observations, it dampens the effect of sporadic daily transfers and does not describe only the most recent day's behavior. The report also stresses that a fall in withdrawals should not be confused with a fall in deposits: the two indicators move in opposite directions, and neither alone can determine the volume of spot market purchases. Darkfost's characterization of the environment is that large holders are passive while prices stay near current levels, with whale demand waiting on more attractive entries rather than reversing outright.

Exchange deposits tell the other side of the story. Over the past 30 days, 1.669 billion XRP arrived on Binance, a seven-month high, while major trading platforms took in 6.05 billion XRP in total, the largest monthly volume since March and nearly double the mid-August figure. Coin inflows to exchanges usually raise selling risk, but analysts note the tokens will not necessarily reach the order book, since they often serve futures market liquidity or the platforms' internal strategies. On-chain data from October 20 also recorded a single large transfer: a wallet that accumulated about 300 million XRP in late 2025 near $2 moved 82.3 million XRP, roughly $106 million, to a new address, and with more than 140 million coins left behind and the recipient wallet unlinked from exchanges, the movement is read as portfolio rebalancing rather than a sale.

New price-structure detail from the same flow assessment puts a supply-side level at $1.48. On-chain data shows roughly 60% of circulating XRP has a realized price clustered near $1.48, meaning a large share of the supply last traded above the current market price; a recovery to that zone could therefore bring out break-even selling and act as resistance. XRP has fallen about 61% from the $3.30 cycle high and lost roughly 4.81% over the past seven days, and without a return of whale demand a sustained rebound may lack volume. The analysis frames direction around two levels: a confirmed break above $1.65 would strengthen the bullish case, while a loss of $1.27 exposes the token to further downside.