XRP's November +80.2% Average Meets a -10% Median

November's Two Numbers Disagree

XRP enters November with its own history split against itself. Monthly return records going back to 2013 show an average November gain of +80.2%, yet the median November for the token is a negative 10%, and the distance between those two figures is the single most consequential statistic holders face this month. The XRP price has fallen 15.7% in October, and market data places the token around $1.25–$1.26 after it lost the $1.30 support line, leaving it at the most unpredictable crossroads of the year. Upward momentum built on investor expectations has faded, which opens the way for profit-taking by short-term players. The oversized average is not false, but it is built on two isolated anomalies: a surge of +531.9% in 2013 and a rally of +281.7% in 2024. Strip those two Novembers out and the typical month lands in the red; in most cycles across the thirteen-year record, November closed lower than it started. The fourth quarter, which so far consists of October alone, is already down 16.3%, in line with a seasonal tendency toward correction that the averaged figure conceals. Neither number works as a clean guide on its own. Thirteen observations form a small sample, and the market's structure has changed: since spot XRP ETFs launched in the United States in mid-November 2025, the token has carried an institutional demand channel that no earlier cycle possessed. The historical record therefore measures a market that no longer exists in at least one respect, while the current tape, thin and freshly corrected, still behaves in ways the old data never captured. Read plainly, the record says November has punished holders more often than it has rewarded them, and the headline +80.2% rests on two Novembers out of thirteen.

A 1 Billion XRP Unlock Meets Cleared Leverage

A scheduled unlock of 1 billion XRP leaves Ripple's escrow wallets on the XRP Ledger blockchain on Sunday, November 1. The event follows a schedule that has run on the same rhythm since 2017, and Ripple typically returns 600–800 million XRP to new escrow contracts, so the genuine net addition to circulating supply, the flow that feeds directly into the token's market cap, runs closer to 200–400 million XRP. Even that reduced volume presses on a thin market. It arrives alongside the aftermath of a wave of forced liquidations of long positions worth more than $1.29 billion, set off by the security incident at Binance, in which stop-loss and liquidation order types executed in a cascade that stripped leverage from the market. It also follows a quarter that makes the current pressure look partly mechanical: October's 15.7% decline comes after a 48% gain in the third quarter, XRP's best Q3 in four years, which points to profit-taking after a strong rally rather than seasonality alone. Derivatives positioning matters here as well. If funding rates stay negative and open interest does not recover, the bearish scenario may be capped by a short squeeze, which would make a retest of $1.30–$1.32 more likely than the raw statistics imply. The map of support and resistance levels runs through one band: a breakdown of the $1.20–$1.17 zone opens a direct path to the psychological mark of $1.00 and the local low of $0.98, while buyers need to push quotes back above $1.30–$1.32 and hold them through the weekly close to restore bullish dynamics.

Our reading is that the split between the +80.2% average and the -10% median turns on one assumption a reader can watch directly: whether the institutional channel opened by the November 2025 ETF launches absorbs the escrow's net supply the way earlier retail cycles could not. That channel gave a mixed print at the end of the week, as spot ETF flows recorded a $496,496 net outflow on Friday, and the wider altcoin market is still carrying the leverage reset left by the recent liquidation wave. If funding stays negative and open interest does not rebuild into the unlock, the median has the better claim; if ETF bids return as the supply hits, the gap between the two historical figures closes from above. Watch the escrow return rate, not the calendar.