Ardi Expects Zcash (ZEC) Rejection Near $1,500 Before Another Leg Down

Ardi Maps a Rebound to $1,500

Zcash (ZEC) price traded near $1,320.83 on October 7, down 3.35% for the session, with the day's range running from $1,289.54 to $1,370.21 and the market sitting close to the lower end of its recent band. That leaves ZEC roughly 22% below the late-September advance that carried it above $1,600 to a peak near $1,693, and repeated attempts to recover $1,400 have so far failed to restore the upward trend. The weekly picture matched: ZEC finished near $1,316.17, between a weekly high of $1,385 and a low of $1,278. Analyst Ardi read the damage in an X post published on October 7: ZEC has lost a daily swing low for the first time since it traded in the $400 range, he argued, and support has also broken on the ZEC/BTC pair across several timeframes, visible from the daily chart down. His recovery case leans on a stronger Bitcoin rally that could lift ZEC back into the previous distribution area between $1,420 and $1,500, a zone where the daily 20-day average near $1,457 and the weekly Murrey Math pivot at $1,500 converge. He treats that move as a probable lower high rather than a return to September's top. “In that case, I’d expect a lower high to form before another leg down towards the liquidity in the previous range at $1,100–$1,200,” he wrote. The downside branch carries the same condition: without a Bitcoin rebound, he expects ZEC to head for that lower range directly. The setup is straightforward support and resistance mapping, with descending rebound highs defining the ceiling since the September peak.

@ArdiNSC · X post

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Liquidation Clusters at $1,270 and $1,165

Longer-term trend measures still sit well beneath the market. The 20-day simple moving average stands at $1,457.18, above the current price, so reclaiming it would take a gain of roughly 10%; the 50-day average sits at $1,163.29, the 100-day at $828.88 and the 200-day at $625.22, preserving the shortest-to-longest bullish order. Momentum is softer on both timeframes: Aroon Up read 21.43% against Aroon Down at 64.29%, and the weekly Bull Bear Power reading, though positive at 567.48, has declined from its recent peak. Positioning adds its own pressure. One-month futures liquidation data shows dense clusters near $1,270 and $1,165, with additional bands around $1,400–$1,440 and $1,500 and further concentrations stretching toward $1,600–$1,700. Combined with the weekly Murrey Math range level at $1,250 and the recent weekly low of $1,278, the nearest downside test sits at $1,250–$1,300; a sustained break there would leave $1,165, where the cluster meets the 50-day average, as the next chart-based reference. A second voice is more constructive. In an October 7 X post, Altcoin Sherpa said the current area should hold and described ZEC as one of the stronger altcoins on relative strength, while marking $1,200 or lower as an area of interest only if Bitcoin falls toward $80,000. Institutional access keeps building underneath the price action: Grayscale's ZCSH exchange-traded product began trading on NYSE Arca on August 25 and held more than $500 million in assets by September 8, including roughly $100 million from a Digital Currency Group affiliate and over $70 million in cumulative inflows, and a separate SEC filing scheduled a 3-for-1 share split before the September 30 open. The product offers US investors regulated exposure to the privacy chain built on zero-knowledge proofs; a spot Zcash ETF filing from the Winklevoss camp widens the pipeline further, even as Grayscale's fund just logged a first weekly outflow of $93.6 million. Protocol work also advanced, with the NU7 testnet activation set for block 4,465,026 on October 6.

@AltcoinSherpa · X post

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Both Calls Hinge on Bitcoin's Range

The two forecasts rest on the same variable: Bitcoin's range. A rejection from $1,420–$1,500 would fit Ardi's mechanics precisely, since that band overlaps the 20-day average at $1,457 and futures liquidation clusters above $1,400; sustained trading above $1,500 would invalidate the lower-high thesis and reopen the path toward the September peak near $1,693. Our Zcash technical analysis tracks the same map, with the $1,250–$1,300 shelf, where the weekly Murrey Math level and the $1,278 low sit, as the first test below. Sherpa's constructive stance needs nothing more than that shelf holding; his $1,200 scenario, like Ardi's downside branch, waits on Bitcoin at $80,000. Whether the band rejects or breaks, the call stays with the analysts, and the chart will answer.