ASML Q3 Net Profit Hits €4.96 Billion, Above the €4.1 Billion Consensus

Update 23:43 UTC: Japanese semiconductor equipment names sold off in the afternoon once ASML's release landed around 2 p.m. local time: Tokyo Electron closed down 2.73% at ¥11,240, Disco lost 0.82% to ¥58,100, and EUV mask inspection maker Lasertec fell ¥720 to ¥45,370, while Advantest ended nearly flat at ¥40,380.

Q3 Net Profit Jumps 70% From Q2

ASML Holding (ASML) reported third-quarter results on Wednesday that put AI spending at the center of the story. Total net sales reached €11.66 billion, roughly $13.05 billion, up 25% from €9.33 billion in the second quarter and a company record that landed at the top end of the guidance range set in July. Net income came in at €4.96 billion, about $5.55 billion, a rise of roughly 70% from the €2.92 billion booked three months earlier. Gross margin expanded to 57.5% from 54.0% a quarter earlier. The service side did much of the lifting: Installed Base Management, the line covering maintenance and field upgrades for tools already installed in fabs, generated €3.29 billion and came in above the company's own forecast. That recurring revenue is steadier than tool sales and it was the stated driver of the margin upside. Unit volumes moved the same way: the company sold 113 new lithography systems in the quarter, up from 86 in the second, an increase of about 31%. In the official press release, CEO Christophe Fouquet said, “Customers continue to raise their short and medium-term equipment demand forecasts,” a view he tied to their expectations for the scale and duration of AI-related investment. He extended the timeline further than markets are used to hearing: some customers have already indicated they want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030 delivery. Order books stretching five years out are rare in semiconductor equipment, and the statement turns the 2027 and 2028 capacity question from option into necessity.

The results rippled into Tokyo on the same day. Japanese semiconductor equipment names sold off in the afternoon once ASML's release landed around 2 p.m. local time: Tokyo Electron closed down 2.73% at ¥11,240, Disco lost 0.82% to ¥58,100, and EUV mask inspection maker Lasertec fell ¥720 to ¥45,370, while Advantest ended nearly flat at ¥40,380. Tokyo Electron alone was estimated to have dragged the Nikkei down about 159 points, dwarfing the index's 33-point decline. Traders treated the print as sold-out news despite the strong outlook, with lingering caution over Chinese memory makers' technical progress weighing on the sector. Tokyo Electron also said the same day it is ready to cooperate on equipment for GlobalFoundries' planned New York fab, a possible medium-term order source, and attention now shifts to TSMC's October 15 earnings and any comment on 2027 capex plans.

Guidance Raised, 2028 Capacity Under Review

The beat against consensus was decisive on profit even though sales came in slightly light. Consensus estimates compiled by LSEG had projected third-quarter revenue of €11.72 billion and net income of €4.1 billion, so the €4.96 billion profit print exceeded the street by more than 20%. Guidance moved up with the results. ASML now expects full-year 2026 revenue of €44 billion to €45 billion, raising the bottom of the July range of €43 billion to €45 billion, with gross margin around 56% for the year. The fourth-quarter outlook calls for €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion in revenue at roughly 57% gross margin, and the upper end of that range sits above the €14.2 billion consensus. Capacity is the binding question behind the bullish numbers. Fouquet said order momentum has strengthened quarter by quarter and that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand in either year. The second-quarter report had already flagged a 30% capacity increase for low numerical aperture EUV and DUV immersion tools in 2027, with a further 30% under study for 2028; this week the company said it is examining an expansion of the 2028 increase beyond that 30%. The demand pull traces back to AI infrastructure spending of the kind NVIDIA has anchored all year. On capital returns, ASML bought back about €4.1 billion of its own shares in the third quarter under the 2026-2028 program and declared a 2026 interim dividend of €1.88 per share, payable on 4 November. The company maintained its estimate for China at roughly 20% of revenue. Shares rose about 2% in early European trading after the release and have gained 56% so far this year.

Stock Rests on 100-Score Support

The early pop did not survive the session. COINOTAG data shows the last price at $1,699.69, down 0.97% over 24 hours, after a 24-hour range of $1,640.20 to $1,755.80, leaving the shares resting directly on the strongest support in our composite, $1,698.07, scored 100/100, where the lower Bollinger Band, a Fibonacci Retracement level at 0.382 and a high-volume node converge. Resistance at $1,743.10 scores 97/100. The daily RSI reads 40.4 and the MACD signal is bearish, so the stock still trades inside a short-term downtrend; a daily close above $1,743.10 would be the first technical sign that the earnings beat is resetting that trend (as of 23:43 UTC).