Rick Bensignor Sees 10-Year Treasury Yield at 6.07% in Bitcoin (BTC) Uncharted Territory

Bensignor’s 6.07% Yield Target

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a rate environment it has never traded through. Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies, said in a televised market interview that the US 10-year Treasury yield could climb toward 6.07%, up from roughly 4.78% at present. The last time the benchmark traded near 6% was April 2000 — about eight years before Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin white paper appeared — which means the asset has never operated inside a yield cycle of this shape. Bensignor’s projection rests on a multi-year uptrend line, while a 200-week moving average recently flagged a local low near the 4% mark. He frames the benchmark’s historical range as unusually wide: the 10-year peaked at 15.8% in the early 1980s and bottomed near 40 basis points at its record low, which places 8.11% at the exact halfway point of that span. He does not expect a return to that midpoint, but he argues that even 5.6% would constitute a minimum upside target for the move. Bensignor, whose own first mortgage carried a rate above 7% back in 1987, contends that borrowers today systematically underestimate how high rates can climb. This year’s upward drift in the benchmark has been persistent rather than explosive, and the strategist is explicit that his target is not a next-week forecast. Still, for anyone tracking Bitcoin on Fed rate watch, the implication is structural rather than tactical: Treasury yields set the return hurdle against which every non-yielding asset — BTC included — is ultimately judged.

A Debasement Narrative Under Strain

The mechanism that matters for BTC is capital competition. Rising yields pull money toward safer, income-generating assets and away from speculative ones, which pressures the so-called debasement trade — the narrative that ties Bitcoin’s price to anxiety over US fiscal health. That narrative already faces strain from both directions. Federal debt has passed $40 trillion, a threshold that has revived the Bitcoin backing debate among hard-money critics, yet Bitcoin still trades near $80,138, roughly 37% below its all-time high. If yields grind higher while BTC remains range-bound, the disconnect between debt fears and price could widen further. Recent turmoil in bond markets has shown how quickly yield spikes can spill across other asset classes, and BTC has never operated inside a Treasury regime with federal debt at this scale. The counterargument deserves equal weight: yields can rise for reasons that leave the scarcity thesis intact. Inflation or fiscal stress could push rates up without denting the halving-driven scarcity model at the core of the asset’s design, while resilient economic growth could lift yields simply by draining excess liquidity from risk markets. Income-free assets compete directly with Treasuries for institutional allocation, so flows into spot Bitcoin ETF products — and the wider Bitcoin market — are sensitive to that relative-yield math. The Bitcoin maximalism school answers that BTC is digital gold first and a risk asset only in the eyes of leveraged traders, pointing to conviction holders committed to a long-term HODL strategy as evidence that spot demand does not evaporate when rates climb. Whether that holds if yields push toward 6% is precisely what the next leg of this cycle will test. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

Rate-Sensitive Asset or Digital Gold

COINOTAG’s own aggregate data suggests conviction is still holding: the Fear & Greed Index reads 71/100, deep in Greed, and Bitcoin commands 68.3% of our tracked market, which stands near $2.35 trillion. Capital has not fled the largest crypto asset as yields climb — the coming test of the 6% zone will decide which of BTC’s two identities wins.