Bitcoin (BTC) Marks One Year Since Trump's Tariff Post Erased $19 Billion

Update 19:59 UTC: The anniversary weakness has arrived early.

One Year After 10/10

One year on from the crash traders still call 10/10, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $83,460 on Wednesday, roughly 34% below the record that preceded the sell-off. The Bitcoin (BTC) price printed what was then an all-time high around $126,200 on October 6, 2025. Four days later, President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods alongside software export controls, and digital-asset markets gave way within hours. Borrowed money did the damage. When prices fall far enough, exchanges close leveraged positions automatically, a mechanism known as liquidation, and the cascade that followed was unprecedented: data tracker Coinglass counted more than $19 billion in forced closures, with about $7 billion erased inside a single hour and over 1.6 million accounts hit. Market commentary posted as the event unfolded called it the largest liquidation episode on record. The losses did not end that Friday. The slide extended for months until Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed near $58,600 on July 1, a drawdown deep enough for some analysts to treat the stretch since the October 2025 peak as a bear market in its own right, whatever the longer arc. Positioning has since rebuilt rather than retreated: our earlier reporting on a $403.58 million liquidation flush found fresh leverage entering even as spot flows stayed constructive. For newer participants, the mechanics deserve a recap: a margined position is closed by the exchange once collateral falls below its maintenance threshold, which converts a price drop into forced selling and can compound the drop itself. The asset enters the anniversary week about a third lighter than at its peak, and Saturday marks the exact date. Recovery since has been slow and uneven rather than V-shaped, and the largest single-day loss in crypto history still stands as the benchmark against which every leverage cycle since is measured.

The anniversary weakness has arrived early. Bitcoin (BTC) price fell 4% over the past 24 hours on Thursday to a one-month low just above $80,000, down more than 8% since approaching $87,000 only four days ago, and the rest of the sector sold off harder: ether and XRP slipped about 6% and solana 9% over the same day, with all three down double digits for the week. Wire reporting attributes the selling to surging oil prices and rising interest rates, alongside regulatory uncertainty after the Clarity Act failed and ahead of US midterm elections. Sentiment among large allocators is diverging from the tape: a State Street survey of 300 asset managers, asset owners and wealth managers found 51% expect digital assets to go mainstream within five years, up from 11% in 2024, with institutions holding an average 11% of portfolios in digital assets and planning to lift that share over the next three years.

@Ajay_Bagga · X post

Market commentary posted as the event unfolded.

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Diesel Replaces Tariffs as This October's Risk

The new threat this October sits at the fuel pump rather than on an exchange tape. The US conflict with Iran is now in its eighth month, and two developments this week raised the temperature: Iranian lawmakers moved to impeach Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi over his contacts with Washington, and Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned. Crude itself is flowing more freely. Gulf exports reached 91% of pre-war volumes in September, according to wire reporting on Gulf shipping lanes, with high freight rates luring shipowners back into the region even as analysts caution that disruption is far from over. Refined products tell a sharper story: diesel had recovered only about 60% of pre-war flows, per Vortexa data cited in the same reporting. At the pump, US diesel averaged $6.41 a gallon on September 30, AAA figures show, roughly 73% above the level of a year earlier. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, called diesel the fuel that moves almost everything people buy, a reminder that transport costs feed wages, retail prices and eventually the inflation prints that set the Federal Reserve's path. Risk assets, crypto included, price that chain. President Trump pushed back on the framing on Monday, writing on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz no longer drives gasoline prices and blaming refineries instead. Within minutes of that post, a tanker in the strait was struck and caught fire. The Group of Seven has agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil, yet Brent crude still traded near $102 on Monday. The anniversary on Saturday therefore arrives with oil above $100 and diesel above $6, a combination traders who remember last October's cascade now treat as the primary macro risk channel.

@Reuters · X post

According to wire reporting on Gulf shipping lanes.

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$86,239 Reclaim Decides the Week

COINOTAG's composite S/R scoring rates the $84,088 resistance at 80/100 (EMA 20, Pivot Point, Fibo 0.114) and the next ceiling at $85,009 scores 75/100 (R1, LVN 5, Ichimoku Tenkan). Nearest support at $80,849 is the strongest level on the board at 93/100 (BB Lower, SMA 50, S2), with a moderate floor at $78,622 (59/100) and a deeper $76,365 base at 82/100 (Fibo 0.382, LVN 4, Donchian Lower). RSI prints 47.26 and the MACD is bearish inside an uptrend we still frame as a maturing bull market. Derivatives lean long: funding sits at 0.0056%, open interest near $15.67 billion, and 66.9% of accounts are long against 33.1% short, a 2.02 long/short ratio. Fear & Greed reads 64, or Greed. A daily close above $84,088 opens the run at $85,009; losing $80,849 aims at $78,622, and a break of that level would put the constructive case in doubt. Bitcoin's tracked market cap stands near $1.64 trillion, giving BTC a 68.6% share of our tracked universe. Live Bitcoin technical analysis updates continuously. Context for the asset sits in our Bitcoin tag hub (as of 20:57 UTC).