Bitcoin (BTC) Marks One Year Since Trump's Tariff Post Erased $19 Billion

One Year After 10/10

One year on from the crash traders still call 10/10, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $83,460 on Wednesday, roughly 34% below the record that preceded the sell-off. The Bitcoin (BTC) price printed what was then an all-time high around $126,200 on October 6, 2025. Four days later, President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods alongside software export controls, and digital-asset markets gave way within hours. Borrowed money did the damage. When prices fall far enough, exchanges close leveraged positions automatically, a mechanism known as liquidation, and the cascade that followed was unprecedented: data tracker Coinglass counted more than $19 billion in forced closures, with about $7 billion erased inside a single hour and over 1.6 million accounts hit. Market commentary posted as the event unfolded called it the largest liquidation episode on record. The losses did not end that Friday. The slide extended for months until Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed near $58,600 on July 1, a drawdown deep enough for some analysts to treat the stretch since the October 2025 peak as a bear market in its own right, whatever the longer arc. Positioning has since rebuilt rather than retreated: our earlier reporting on a $403.58 million liquidation flush found fresh leverage entering even as spot flows stayed constructive. For newer participants, the mechanics deserve a recap: a margined position is closed by the exchange once collateral falls below its maintenance threshold, which converts a price drop into forced selling and can compound the drop itself. The asset enters the anniversary week about a third lighter than at its peak, and Saturday marks the exact date. Recovery since has been slow and uneven rather than V-shaped, and the largest single-day loss in crypto history still stands as the benchmark against which every leverage cycle since is measured.

@Ajay_Bagga · X post

Market commentary posted as the event unfolded.

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Diesel Replaces Tariffs as This October's Risk

The new threat this October sits at the fuel pump rather than on an exchange tape. The US conflict with Iran is now in its eighth month, and two developments this week raised the temperature: Iranian lawmakers moved to impeach Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi over his contacts with Washington, and Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned. Crude itself is flowing more freely. Gulf exports reached 91% of pre-war volumes in September, according to wire reporting on Gulf shipping lanes, with high freight rates luring shipowners back into the region even as analysts caution that disruption is far from over. Refined products tell a sharper story: diesel had recovered only about 60% of pre-war flows, per Vortexa data cited in the same reporting. At the pump, US diesel averaged $6.41 a gallon on September 30, AAA figures show, roughly 73% above the level of a year earlier. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, called diesel the fuel that moves almost everything people buy, a reminder that transport costs feed wages, retail prices and eventually the inflation prints that set the Federal Reserve's path. Risk assets, crypto included, price that chain. President Trump pushed back on the framing on Monday, writing on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz no longer drives gasoline prices and blaming refineries instead. Within minutes of that post, a tanker in the strait was struck and caught fire. The Group of Seven has agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil, yet Brent crude still traded near $102 on Monday. The anniversary on Saturday therefore arrives with oil above $100 and diesel above $6, a combination traders who remember last October's cascade now treat as the primary macro risk channel.

@Reuters · X post

According to wire reporting on Gulf shipping lanes.

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$86,239 Reclaim Decides the Week

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $86,239 resistance at 62/100 (R1, HVN 5) and the stronger $87,568 ceiling at 88/100, driven by the Bollinger Upper band, R2 and the Keltner Upper channel. Nearest support at $82,510 scores 51/100 (Swing Low, LVN200), with the heavier $79,403 floor at 62/100 (BB Lower, EMA 50, Supertrend). RSI prints 53.49 and the MACD is bearish inside an uptrend we still frame as a maturing bull market. Derivatives are unpolarized: funding sits at 0.0000%, open interest near $16.28 billion, and 61.2% of accounts are long. Fear & Greed reads 71, or Greed. A daily close above $86,239 opens the run at $87,568; losing $82,510 aims at $79,403, and a break of that level would invalidate the constructive case. Bitcoin's tracked market cap stands near $1.67 trillion, giving Bitcoin (BTC) a 68.1% share of our tracked universe. Live Bitcoin technical analysis updates continuously. Context for the asset sits in our Bitcoin tag hub.