Bitcoin (BTC) Beat the S&P 500 on 55.6% of Trading Days Since Oct 1

Win Rate Recovers From a June Low

Bitcoin (BTC) outperformed the S&P 500 on 10 of the 18 trading sessions between Oct 1 and Oct 26, a 55.6% daily win rate that pushed the ratio back above 50% in recent sessions. The Bitcoin price stood at $80,873 at the time of writing, 0.3% above its level when the reading was published at 17:25 UTC. Glassnode's weekly research, which tracks the share of days the asset finishes ahead of the equity index, dated the earlier trough to June, when only about one session in five ended ahead, a level the firm described as a roughly six-year low. The metric is a blunt gauge of whether the asset trades on its own schedule or as high-beta equity, and the October sample, short as it is, marks a clear directional turn from that floor: the hit rate has more than doubled. The recovery in the count, however, did not extend to the margin. Over the same window Bitcoin lost 4.25%, in step with the October slide our desk has tracked this month, while the S&P 500 added 0.33%, a relative shortfall of close to 4.6 percentage points. The asymmetry sat inside the daily scores as well: on the days the asset beat stocks, the average edge came to about 0.71%, while on the days it trailed, the average deficit ran to 1.44%, roughly double. One thin green day against the index did little to offset a single sharp red one, so in net terms the month still belonged to equities.

IBIT Took 96.3% of Net Flows

The concentration inside the ETF complex is starker than the October totals suggest. A Coinbase research note published on Oct 23 put cumulative inflows into BlackRock's IBIT at about $6 billion since Aug 1, against roughly $500 million for every other US spot ETF combined, a 92% share for the largest single fund. Flow-tracking data covering Aug 3 to Oct 26 sharpened the gap: IBIT absorbed $5.7 billion of net creations while all rival funds together added $221 million, lifting the fund's share to 96.3% of the net total. October itself flipped negative for the group. IBIT took in $866 million over the month while the other funds shed more than $1 billion, leaving the complex with a net outflow of about $203 million. The dominance, in other words, partly reflects money leaving rivals rather than fresh demand arriving, and for flow watchers the practical consequence is that headline ETF totals now move with one fund alone: the aggregate across the wider Bitcoin (BTC) complex can flip negative even while IBIT itself keeps taking in money. The same note flagged weak spot demand underneath the flow picture. Stablecoin supply sat about $12.7 billion below its May peak, and the Coinbase Premium, a gauge of US spot buying, ran negative through October. Downside protection grew more expensive as the month progressed: the options skew rose from 8.9% to 10.4%, and one-month implied volatility held near 35%, a reading in the lowest percentile band since 2019. Coinbase framed two paths from here. With the Federal Reserve on hold, IBIT inflows continuing and money returning to rival funds, the ETF's average acquisition cost of about $81,300 could climb through $82,500 toward $84,400. If US data strengthens the case for higher rates for longer and outflows persist, the note warned, a break of $77,000-$77,800 would open a slide toward $73,000-$75,000.

Two Levels Around $80,873

Our composite scoring frames the same range the research described. Spot traded at $80,873, 0.3% above the print taken at 17:25 UTC, with support marked at $78,131, a level scored 95/100 where the 100-day moving average meets Fibonacci retracement and volume-node structure, and resistance at $82,226, scored 94/100. Momentum runs soft: the RSI read 44.2, the trend flag points lower, and perp funding sits near neutral at 0.0064%. The fuller picture sits in our Bitcoin technical analysis. A close above $82,226 would put the $82,500-$84,400 cost-basis zone within reach, while losing $78,131 would hand the argument to the $77,000-$77,800 floor the note flagged. The 18-session stretch closed with the Monday that produced $1.3 billion of forced liquidations, the downtrend flag has held throughout, and volatility near a 2019-era low leaves the range waiting on macro data.