Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs Shed $484.9 Million on Tuesday, Led by BlackRock's IBIT

Update 12:46 UTC: The two-session tally now stands at $729 million, with Farside recording a further $244.1 million leaving the US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs on Oct. 8 after Tuesday's $484.9 million exit, leaving month-to-date flows at minus $407.4 million.

Where the Withdrawals Concentrated

Bitcoin (BTC) came under fresh pressure on Tuesday as investors pulled $484.9 million out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single session, the heaviest daily withdrawal from those funds since June 25. The Bitcoin (BTC) price slipped below the $83,000 support during the morning hours, closed the day near that line and carried the decline into a third consecutive down session; the close was the weakest in roughly 17 days. The flow figures cover Tuesday's session, October 7, and were compiled from the funds' official daily creation and redemption records. The outflows were concentrated in the largest products. BlackRock's IBIT alone shed $207.7 million, while Fidelity's FBTC lost $105.1 million and Ark Invest's ARKB $101.7 million. Combined, the three largest funds accounted for $414.5 million, or roughly 85% of the day's total. Grayscale's GBTC saw $39.3 million leave, Bitwise's BITB $27.6 million and VanEck's HODL $3.5 million. Six other funds, among them Grayscale Mini Bitcoin (BTC), Morgan Stanley's MSBT, Valkyrie's BRRR, Franklin Templeton's EZBC, Invesco's BTCO and WisdomTree's BTCW, recorded no net movement in either direction. Mechanically, a net outflow day means authorized participants redeemed more fund shares than they created, converting trust-held Bitcoin into sell orders; net creations do the opposite. On the tape, the morning break of $83,000 briefly extended below $82,200 before buyers steadied the market near $82,800, leaving the 24-hour loss close to 1.9% at that point. Recovery attempts stalled under $83,000 through the rest of the session. FxPro had cautioned ahead of the break that a decisive loss of $83,000 could hand sellers control and speed the move toward $80,000. Our live monitoring now reads $82,908, down 1.6% over the past day and only 0.1% below the level recorded when the flow figures were finalized early on Thursday (05:41 UTC).

The redemption wave also wiped out October's early institutional gains: the funds had drawn $321.6 million across the first four U.S. sessions of the month, and Wednesday's $484.9 million exit left them roughly $163.3 million net negative for October through Oct. 7. The selling spread to Ether products, where spot ETFs lost $160.9 million in a seventh consecutive outflow session dating back to Sept. 29, bringing that run to about $568.8 million, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $116.1 million. On-chain data frame the downside: Glassnode places the nearest major liquidation cluster between $81,700 and $83,300, almost exactly where Bitcoin (BTC) trades, and identifies a block of large Binance spot bids at $81,000–$81,250 as the next support if $82,000 gives way. A recovery would need to retake $83,000 first, with heavier resistance at $85,500–$86,750 above.

A fuller accounting of the two-day redemption wave shows the selling was far from uniform across issuers. Farside's Oct. 1–8 breakdown puts Fidelity's FBTC at a net $408.1 million outflow for the month, more than the entire market's $407.4 million net negative, with redemptions in five of six October sessions, followed by ARK 21Shares' ARKB at $214.9 million, GBTC at $78.9 million and BITB at $52.2 million. BlackRock's IBIT absorbed $332.5 million of net inflows over the same stretch, though even it shed $207.7 million on Oct. 7, its largest monthly withdrawal; excluding IBIT, the remaining funds lost $739.9 million. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimates the average US spot ETF holder paid $81,722 per coin, and with Bitcoin trading near $81,607, most fund positions are slightly underwater again.

The two-session tally now stands at $729 million, with Farside recording a further $244.1 million leaving the US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Oct. 8 after Tuesday's $484.9 million exit, leaving month-to-date flows at minus $407.4 million. The selling landed as Bitcoin revisited the funds' estimated average entry price of $81,722 per coin, a level Bloomberg Intelligence's James Seyffart flagged when BTC cleared it in late September; with the market near $81,607, the average position is marginally underwater again. Behavioral breakeven selling can turn a cost basis into resistance, and the September rally's main buyer, which absorbed more than $2.3 billion between Sept. 21 and Sept. 30, appears anchored to price rather than conviction. Ethereum funds extended their streak to an eighth session, losing $641.3 million since Sept. 29.

Our composite support and resistance scoring frames the recovery. The strongest floor below the market sits at $82,002.88, where a cluster of indicators scores 100 out of 100, while the nearest ceiling, $84,441.67, carries 90 out of 100 just above the last reading of $82,676.09. Positioning is steady: open interest stands near $15.43 billion and the funding rate is slightly negative at -0.0001%, with 61.3% of accounts holding long positions at a 1.59 long/short ratio. Momentum leans neutral, with an RSI of 50.66 and a bearish MACD inside what our model still classes as an uptrend, and sentiment at 64 on the Fear and Greed Index keeps traders in greedy territory. A break above $84,441.67, or a slip under $82,002.88, would change the picture. The full level set is in our Bitcoin technical analysis (as of 02:15 UTC).

Macro Pressure Met Dip Buying

The sell-off did not come from crypto alone. Reports that the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare a military strike plan against Iran lifted Brent crude roughly 2% back to $102 a barrel, and the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.31%, approaching levels last seen in 2002. Both moves raise the discount rate on risk assets; Bitcoin's two prior sessions of losses tracked the oil and yield climb. The weakness spread across majors: XRP fell about 4% to $1.42, Ethereum slipped near 3% to $2,570, Dogecoin lost roughly 3%, and HYPE and Solana each gave up more than 2%. Roughly $550 million in leveraged positions were liquidated on Tuesday, most of them longs opened through margin trading. The bond market is where the constructive case lives. Infrastructure Capital Advisors expects only one further rate increase from the Federal Reserve, in line with the officials' own projections and below what markets price. The firm's leadership notes 10-year yields typically run about 100 basis points above the level where past hiking cycles ended, and argues weak housing data and soft core inflation could convince the Fed to pause and steady yields near 5%. The rate-path debate sharpened after the FOMC minutes pointed to one more hike, the session that first took Bitcoin under $83,000. Dip buyers did not disappear: analyst Murphy's order book work found Binance spot trading depth within 5% of price reached $80 million at one point as the market fell through $83,000, higher than during the September 10-16 correction and close to the levels that held at July's bottom. At $83,000, that band of buy-side liquidity stretched down to about $79,000, and the gap between market-order buying and selling widened in favor of buyers as the price fell, which in Murphy's reading does not point to a deeper slide. Supply overhang persists: the US government's $565.87 million transfer of seized Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime, covered here as it cleared, kept sellers in the picture. Institutional plumbing kept advancing underneath the selling, with Wells Fargo in talks with Kraken parent Payward over Bitcoin trading liquidity. Even so, the dip-buying conditions have held since Tuesday's first test of $83,000: three consecutive lower closes so far, and the $80,879 floor still untested.

The pressure carried into Thursday's session. Bitcoin touched $81,000 on Bitstamp, its weakest level since Sept. 21, as reports of a possible new US strike plan against Iran pushed Brent crude to $105.88 and WTI to $93.20, both multiweek highs. The US 30-year Treasury yield printed a 24-year peak of 5.73% before easing to 5.65%, and Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller, speaking at a Central Bank of Turkey forum in Istanbul, said he anticipates additional rate hikes to return inflation to the 2% goal if data cooperate. Odds of a 0.25% hike at the December meeting passed 70% on CME's FedWatch, while consensus still favors a pause in October. Trader Rekt Capital called $82,500 the deciding point for Bitcoin's next market structure, and cross-crypto long liquidations reached roughly $430 million, per CoinGlass.