Bitcoin (BTC) Stabilizes Near $77,000 After Binance Hack

Weekend Slide to $76,000 Finds a Floor

Bitcoin (BTC) price steadied between $77,000 and $78,000 at the start of the week after a weekend slide to $76,000 that followed the breach of the Binance exchange, and both ends of that band now carry weight: the $76,000 print marks where the weekend capitulation ended, while the upper bound is the level the recovery has yet to reclaim. The bounce has so far stayed inside the band rather than breaking out of it, keeping the market pinned at the lower half of last week's range. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen expects the correction to run deeper before it turns: in his latest analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) can drop to around $70,000 in the short term before recovering to $90,000 by year-end. Measured against the weekend low, that downside target is roughly 8% lower, while the year-end goal sits about 16% above current levels. He frames the present move as a short-term correction process rather than the end of the bullish cycle, so the longer-term uptrend stays intact in his reading. The load-bearing argument sits in the US Treasury market: fading investor confidence in traditional bonds would steer capital toward alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold, a rotation that has favored fixed-supply monetary assets in past risk-off phases. He also flagged a possible turn in monetary policy: the Federal Reserve could adopt a more cautious stance in early December, with an additional rate increase among the outcomes, before conditions turn market-friendly and support the year-end rally. On relative value, Thielen expects Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum, which would keep the cycle's marginal gains away from smaller altcoin names, a view that echoes the Bitcoin Maximalism thesis. Our own desk data backs the stabilization read: spot is holding $848 above the $77,140 realized-price line, and the weekend deleveraging produced a $29.2M liquidation flush in which short positions absorbed 77% of the losses.

Midterms, Payrolls and Tech Earnings Crowd the Calendar

The week ahead gives this correction its verdict, and it starts in politics. US midterm elections kick off on Tuesday, November 3, the first nationwide ballot since 2024, with control of Congress on the line. Democrats are widely expected to take the House of Representatives, while the Senate outcome remains genuinely undecided. Any result that reshapes expectations for government spending or for the regulatory treatment of digital assets feeds straight into markets, and our pre-election note held the market near $78,200 into the vote. The bigger macro test lands, when the October jobs report is due, the week's single most market-sensitive release. Economists look for about 62,000 new positions after only 29,000 were added in September, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. A strong print would reinforce December rate-hike bets and lean on Bitcoin (BTC), while a weak one would hand the market relief; higher-for-longer pricing lifts the dollar and discount rates, both headwinds for risk assets. The data run is front-loaded: JOLTS job openings arrive Tuesday, ADP private payrolls and the ISM services index land, and the official payrolls report closes the week . Corporate results add their own weight: roughly 20% of S&P 500 companies report this week, with Apple and Palantir out Monday and AMD and Super Micro due Tuesday. After October's sharp selloff in technology stocks, weak results from AI-linked names could pull the Nasdaq and crypto down together, and Monday's numbers set the tone before the vote is even counted. Five Federal Reserve officials also speak this week, and markets will parse their remarks for confirmation of the December posture Thielen described. Their remarks round out a week in which every session carries a scheduled catalyst. Ahead of all of it, the band itself is the near-term question: whether $77,000-$78,000 survives Tuesday's first post-election session will show how much political risk is already priced.

Why the $70,000 Scenario Is Live

The weekend low of $76,000 already sits within about 8% of Thielen's downside target, so the calendar, not the chart, decides the next leg. A payrolls result near or above the 62,000 consensus validates the December-hike path and puts $70,000 in play; a miss revives the year-end rally toward $90,000. The selling also looks forced rather than structural: shorts absorbed 77% of the $29.2M flush, pointing to leveraged positions rather than long-term holders who HODL through drawdowns as the sellers. The open question is whether crypto whale demand re-engages on the dips, and whether Bitcoin's Proof of Work issuance, which no act of Congress can expand, keeps drawing the bond-rotation flows Thielen described. Our Bitcoin technical analysis map keeps those levels current as the week's prints land.