Bitcoin (BTC) Stalls Near $78K Ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech

BTC/JPY Runs Out of Steam Below ¥13 Million

Bitcoin (BTC) lost momentum just short of ¥13 million this week, with the Japanese-market pair treading water ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Aug. 28 appearance at Jackson Hole. A weekly chart review by bitbank market analyst Yuuya Hasegawa traces the run-up: BTC/JPY surged from around ¥10 million to the mid-¥12.6 million range after the US Treasury announced an expanded program of long-bond buybacks, then dipped toward ¥12.3 million over the weekend. Reports that the Treasury's general account (TGA) — the government's operating balance at the Fed — could fund those buybacks revived hopes that drawing it down would loosen market liquidity, setting up this week's test of ¥13 million. Profit-taking knocked the pair back to roughly ¥12.5 million on Aug. 25, and although NVIDIA's strong earnings lifted US tech on Aug. 27 and carried BTC back to the ¥13 million doorstep, chasing highs into the event stayed limited. Warsh has been skeptical of market intervention and views rising long yields as a tightening force, so the curve matters: a long-end-led rise would re-ignite fiscal concerns and favor the Bitcoin trade, while a short-end-led climb could trigger fresh profit-taking — the same wait-and-see backdrop as recent coverage of how Bitcoin awaits the Fed.

10.4% Weekly Gain Leads the Majors

The hesitation capped a strong week: across the Aug. 22–28 window Bitcoin climbed 10.4% to $80,263, leading the top-cap complex even as lower-ranked assets ran harder — Solana gained 24.8% to $109.18, XRP added 15.6% to $1.45 and Ethereum (ETH) rose 8.5% to $2,511, keeping the broader altcoin market risk-on into month-end. Reader attention concentrated on three threads this week: BTC's market conditions, quantum-threat countermeasures for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and Japan's settlement push. On the first structural front, StarkWare executed the first quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction on mainnet — a milestone showing that the proof-of-work base layer can be hardened against future quantum attacks without disrupting the network. On the second, the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan advanced blockchain infrastructure for instant settlement of government bonds and equities, a domestic echo of European experiments with on-chain central bank money that could eventually move public-market settlement onto distributed ledgers. Both threads feed BTC's long-duration case: one defends the asset's security assumptions, the other builds institutional plumbing that tokenized demand could flow through.

Volume Collapses as Participation Fades

Snapshot data as of 04:00 UTC on Aug. 30 shows a rebound resting on thinning participation. Bitcoin printed $78,164, up 0.74% on the day, but spot turnover collapsed roughly 60% to about $13.76 billion — the bounce lacks conviction. The five-session sequence of daily moves (+0.62%, +1.55%, -3.00%, +0.49%, -0.11%) underscores the chop: after the sharp Aug. 28 drop, recovery has been shallow, with the S&P 500 flat and gold little changed, leaving risk appetite undecided. Active wallets fell 16% to 567,148 from 676,953 and Google Trends interest slipped to 43 from 47, both pointing to cooling retail engagement. On the supply side, exchange balances dropped 306 BTC to 2,488,595 BTC, extending a net-outflow streak that trims readily sellable coins — though the day's withdrawal was well below the prior session's 3,543 BTC, so whale-style accumulation pressure is easing rather than accelerating. Daily MACD holds positive while the weekly gauge stays negative, global dominance ticked up to 59.52%, and SOPR pinned at 1.00 means the market is spending barely above cost basis. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

COINOTAG Composite: 89/100 Ceiling in Play

Fresh positioning data adds texture to the consolidation case: roughly $9.71 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across crypto derivatives over the past two weeks, with $6.55 billion of that in short closures — confirming the rally leaned heavily on a short squeeze rather than spot demand alone. Per SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a net outflow of about $201.8 million on Aug. 28, snapping a nine-day inflow streak and raising questions over near-term institutional demand, while Binance BTC funding rates jumped more than 42% in under a week. On the chart, BTC sits in the $80.5K–$82.5K supply zone's shadow, having broken the rising 4-hour channel but stabilized near $77K–$78K without bearish follow-through; futures average order sizes show no sustained whale clustering, and Glassnode notes wallets holding under 100 BTC accumulated during the dip below $67K. A sustained break above $82.5K, or a loss of $72K–$74.4K, would likely set the next trend.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames the setup precisely: spot sits at $79,028 (+1.19%), pressing against an $80,598 resistance rated 78/100 — a confluence of Fibo 0.000, the Donchian Upper band and the ATR Upper channel. Nearest support at $78,914 scores 77/100 (Fibo 0.114, LVN, MACD Cross), with the stronger $75,891 shelf at 73/100 (Fibo 0.236, EMA 20, LVN, HVN) behind it. Derivatives lean constructive without overheating: funding at 0.0043%, open interest at $15.39 billion, a 1.12 long/short account ratio (52.8% long) and a Fear & Greed reading of 69. The trend is up, with MACD bullish — but the bullish path holds $78,914 and attacks the 78-scored ceiling toward $87,919 (49/100); the bearish path — RSI at 73.18 is already overbought — invalidates on a daily close below $78,914 and opens $73,618 (79/100).