Bitcoin (BTC) Stands Firm as Fed Hike Bets Erase $1.05 Trillion From Gold

Gold and Silver Shed $1.05 Trillion

Precious metals endured a punishing session on Monday, with gold (XAU) and silver erasing roughly $1.05 trillion in combined market value in a single day. Gold fell 2.9%, sliding below $4,200 per ounce to its lowest level since early August, while silver dropped nearly 5% to about $61.11 — and the sell-off was still extending at the time of writing. The damage, itemized by market-cap data: gold, previously valued near $30.04 trillion, surrendered approximately $871 billion, while silver's $3.65 trillion capitalization shed around $180 billion. Live gold pricing on the daily chart tracks the breakdown in real time.

The drivers are macro, not metals-specific. CME's FedWatch tool now prices roughly a 70% probability of an October rate hike, after the Federal Reserve lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points earlier this month to the 3.75%–4.00% range; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was among the officials signaling last week that policy should stay restrictive. Because bullion pays no yield, every step higher in the rate path raises the opportunity cost of holding it. Rising bond yields compound that pressure — the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.20% — while the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 101.39, a two-month high that makes dollar-priced metal costlier for overseas buyers. Energy added fuel rather than relief: stalled US–Iran talks, after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushed Brent crude above $106, feeding inflation fears that harden tighter-for-longer expectations.

$4,000 Now in Sight

The technical damage is as significant as the fundamental one. Earlier in the session, spot gold traded at $4,198.10, down 2.1%, with US futures at $4,231 — before losses extended beneath $4,200. On the daily chart, a head-and-shoulders pattern formed between mid-August and early September; the neckline near $4,320 broke in mid-September, and after a two-week retest of the $4,300–$4,400 zone, sellers seized control. The pattern's measured target sits at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $3,943 — about 5.2% below spot, inside a $3,900–$4,000 support band, and a level whose reach could erase roughly $1.5 trillion more in market value. Momentum agrees: the daily RSI reads 37 and is falling, with the MACD tracking the same bearish course, though neither is yet oversold; a daily close back above $4,400 would be the first crack in the bearish case.

Silver's breakdown is arguably cleaner. Monday's candle closed below $62.87 — a level that had held in June, August and mid-September — after three rejections in the $66–$69 resistance zone that contains the 0.618 Fibonacci at $68.88; earlier-session readings had silver at $62.08, platinum off 2.7% at $1,730.78 and palladium down 2.8% at $1,231.46. The next bearish objective is the 0.786 retracement near $54.51, roughly 11% lower, and live silver pricing suggests sellers are not done. Strategists at OCBC frame the recovery line clearly: failure to reclaim the $4,300–$4,354 band opens $4,200 first, then $4,000. Notably, the structural bid has not evaporated — World Gold Council data shows gold-backed ETFs absorbed $18 billion of inflows in August, the second-strongest month on record, lifting holdings by 121 tonnes to 4,189 tonnes and assets under management to $615 billion. Standard Chartered's Suki Cooper argues elevated US rates raise near-term volatility, but debasement trends, currency concerns and policy uncertainty keep structural support intact. The week's US calendar now decides direction: ADP payrolls Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing and jobless claims Thursday, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls — a strong print could extend metals' pain, a weak one may allow a rebound. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Binance.

Crypto Absorbs the Shock

COINOTAG's aggregate market data suggests the pressure has not yet reached digital assets: our tracked universe holds a $2.47 trillion market cap, Bitcoin (BTC) commands 67.5% dominance, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 74 — still firmly in Greed. Metals are repricing; crypto, for now, is not.