Bitcoin (BTC) Reclaims $81,000 as Trump Weighs Declaring Iran War Over

War Exit Talks Lift Bitcoin

President Donald Trump said publicly this week that the newest round of fighting with Iran will not last long — and reporting on Thursday suggested his private deliberations point the same direction. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has been weighing how to declare the Iran War officially over, reportedly convinced that economic pressure alone will force Tehran to concede. Senior aides, however, have issued a blunt political warning: any escalation beyond the recent strikes near the Strait of Hormuz could cost Republicans the November midterm elections. The private talks mirror the message Trump has already delivered in public — the fighting will be brief.

Markets traded the mix quickly. The Bitcoin (BTC) price reclaimed $81,000 on Thursday, with spot printing near $81,070 at the time of writing, after the asset slid below $77,000 on Tuesday when Trump confirmed fresh strikes — per CoinGecko's Bitcoin feed. Intraday, BTC dipped to $76,963 before reversing, a round trip of more than $4,000 inside two days. The rebound fits the pattern the largest proof-of-work asset has traced all conflict long: it moves on every shift in the war's trajectory. Oil read the same day very differently — traders treating the war as near its end pushed risk assets higher, but energy markets priced the opposite. Brent crude rose toward $98 a barrel, a six-week high, and anything but a peace trade. Overnight, Iran struck United States military bases and Israel signaled it could resume operations. Preliminary shipping data showed six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 a day earlier and well under the 10-day average near 13. The Pentagon, meanwhile, is digging in, with army air-defense tours reportedly stretching from nine months to twelve and some units potentially staying into 2027.

Waller Leans Toward September Hold

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supplied a second tailwind on Thursday, weeks after policymakers split nine to three in July, with three officials pushing for a hike. In remarks published the same day, Waller noted that three-month core inflation slowed to 3.05% through July, down sharply from 4.76% in February, and said he would lean toward holding rates in September if August confirms that trend. He kept a hawkish qualifier attached, however, writing that “it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy.” Rate futures repriced within hours: the CME FedWatch tool placed September hike odds at 50.2%, down from 63.2% a day earlier and below the rare hike probability priced in late July. For crypto, a Fed that pauses rather than hikes removes the single largest macro overhang on risk appetite, and a hold at the September meeting would keep dollar liquidity easier than the late-July pricing implied.

The geopolitical side of the trade carries far less certainty. Brent crude fell 9% intraday on August 2 when Trump announced talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — and that trade unraveled quickly after Trump said Gulf states and Iran had asked him to delay a strike, a claim Iran's Fars news agency denied. Oil is back near $98, the war is in its sixth month, and Trump has committed to no strategy yet. Waller's vote, for its part, waits on August inflation data. The daily BTC/USD chart shows the price above $80,000 resting on two maybes: no fresh strikes, and a benign inflation print. Renewed escalation or a hot print would likely drag BTC back toward Thursday's $76,963 low. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

COINOTAG's aggregate market data shows sentiment holding firm despite the hinges: our Fear & Greed Index reads 65/100 (Greed), Bitcoin commands 68.9% of our tracked market, and total tracked capitalization stands near $2.36 trillion. The rally's qualifier stands: it survives only as long as neither side of the war-and-inflation bet breaks.