Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Intact Despite 49-Vote Senate Bill Failure

Bitwise CIO Dismisses Bill Stall

Bitcoin (BTC) does not need Congress to sustain its uptrend, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who updated his position after the Senate's procedural vote on the US crypto market-structure bill failed to reach the 60-vote threshold, stalling at just 49 votes in favor. His argument is arithmetic as much as conviction: if the rally truly depended on the bill's passage, the collapse in its approval odds should have crushed prices. The market did the opposite. Bitcoin traded near $57,950 in early July and crossed $80,000 by early September even as prediction-market odds of the bill passing this year fell from 39% to 14%. Meanwhile, Wall Street kept building through the legislative uncertainty — Robinhood launched its own blockchain, Morgan Stanley rolled out a crypto ETF product tied to Solana, and DTCC began settling tokenized stock trades without any new statute. Hougan attributes this confidence to pro-crypto leadership at the SEC under Paul Atkins and the CFTC under Mike Selig, both of whom have signaled rulemaking readiness through 2029.

Hashrate Reclaims 900 EH/s

Beneath the price action, the network itself is regaining strength. Data shows Bitcoin's true hashrate, after correcting through the first half of the year from its late-2025 peak, has bottomed and recovered to around 900 EH/s. The 30-day average hashrate stood at 935.4 EH/s as of September 11, exceeding the 60-day average of 917.4 EH/s — a pattern that indicates mining capacity is being re-deployed to the network rather than simply oscillating. A difficulty adjustment earlier this month corroborates the recovery: the protocol raised mining difficulty by 1.31% to 127.45T, when the estimated hashrate was roughly 912 EH/s. The improvement tracks easing miner economics as Bitcoin exited its recent sharp drawdown, bringing offline rigs back online. On-chain analyst CW8800 notes that rising miner activity can be a positive input for price, though he cautions the causality runs both ways — higher prices also revive profitability and pull idle mining hardware back into the proof of work race.

Fed's 4.1% Median Rate Path

The macro backdrop is the sterner test. The FOMC raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on September 16, the first hike since July 2023, citing persistent inflation alongside steady economic expansion. Coinshares research head James Butterfill argues the more consequential signal sits in the dot plot: the Fed's latest projections show a 4.1% median federal funds rate for both 2026 and 2027, up sharply from 3.8% and 3.6% in the June round. In his view, this steeper expected path — reinforced by conflict-driven energy costs tied to Iran and a growing chance of a second hike this year — means Bitcoin is unlikely to decisively clear $80,000 absent a material improvement in the inflation outlook. The September 15 Senate setback on the CLARITY Act, voted down 49-50, adds a second layer of near-term drag, though Butterfill stresses Bitcoin's regulatory status is already settled enough to insulate it relative to altcoins.

Grayscale Sees 1997, Not 2022

Grayscale pushes back on the bearish read. Research head Zach Pandl frames Wednesday's 25-basis-point move as a mid-cycle adjustment rather than the opening of a sustained tightening campaign, pointing to March 25, 1997, when a Greenspan-led Fed hiked once to 5.5% and stopped — the sole rate change of that year. The contrast with 2022 is central to his case: from March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed delivered 525 basis points of hikes that inflated the opportunity cost of holding a yield-free asset and choked risk-asset financing. One or two hikes in 2026, following cuts between September 2024 and December 2025, is a different regime. Bitcoin's own tape supports the distinction — after touching a monthly low, it briefly climbed above $77,000 on September 17, a rebound that forced the liquidation of roughly $260 million in crypto short positions. Grayscale adds that rising yields can even benefit parts of the sector, boosting interest income for stablecoin issuers like Circle and Tether and drawing capital into tokenized bond products. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

$80K Ceiling in Focus

The through-line across these four threads is a market maturing past its dependence on any single legislative or monetary trigger. COINOTAG's own aggregate data reflects that resilience: our Fear & Greed Index reads 56 out of 100 (Greed), Bitcoin commands 67.8% of our tracked market, and total tracked capitalization sits near $2.28 trillion. Whether the $80,000 ceiling breaks now may matter less than the infrastructure being laid beneath it — a thesis echoed in JPMorgan's call that Bitcoin can outpace gold and in UTXO's $1.5 trillion digital credit projection.