Brent Crude Oil (BZ) Slides 12.5% in a Week as Traders Bet on Iran De-escalation

Traders Price Out the War, Hochstein Does Not

Brent crude oil (BZ) ended the week down more than 12.5%, holding near $98 a barrel on Friday, as hopes that the United States and Iran will step back from direct conflict took hold across energy markets. Traders treated the Democratic midterm sweep as a brake on the war, and oil fell 8% on Wednesday in response. Fuel buyers are left facing higher diesel, gasoline and jet fuel bills should the fighting resume. Amos Hochstein, who served as President Joe Biden's energy adviser and is now a managing partner at TWG Global, put the odds of a renewed US-Iran war above 50/50. Speaking in a CNBC interview, he said renewed strikes on Iran may still be the lead policy, and that in his view the decision to resume fighting was taken before the midterms and delayed by days rather than abandoned. Asked directly, he said there is “a very good chance” the two countries go back to conflict. US forces reportedly hit Iran's Qeshm Island a day before the vote. Hochstein laid out three options for President Donald Trump: a renewed war, a deal Trump dislikes, or prolonged economic pressure on Tehran. His warning sits at odds with the week's trade, in which the election result was read as a step down from military escalation. Brent at $98 still trades well below its four-year high above $120, a level suggesting the market is splitting the risk between a negotiated deal and a return to strikes rather than writing either off.

The sell-off leaves the benchmark pinned between two heavily weighted levels rather than in free fall. COINOTAG data shows Brent crude oil at $97.50, up 0.08% over the past 24 hours and inside a daily range of $96.50 to $98.55. COINOTAG's composite scoring rates both the $95.86 support and the $99.99 resistance at 100/100, placing the market between two maximum-weight levels. The daily trend reading remains a downtrend, with the 14-day RSI at 36.9. Positioning leans slightly bearish: the perpetual funding rate stands at -0.0659% per interval, with open interest of about $178.0 million. A push above $99.99 would put Goldman Sachs's target back in play; a break below $95.86 would point toward the deeper supports further down the scale.

Hormuz Attacks Near a Record Pace

The diplomatic track did not stop with the vote count, and neither did the attacks at sea. Iran reported that three more tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, and data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) points to ship attacks on oil-carrying vessels running close to a record rate, a tempo the midterm result has so far done nothing to slow. In parallel, Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. The gap between the two positions remains wide: Washington continues to demand that Tehran abandon its nuclear capabilities, while Iran's conditions are the lifting of the US naval blockade, eased sanctions and the release of frozen assets before Hormuz fully reopens. Goldman Sachs set a $105 December target for Brent before the vote, citing supply disruption risk, and the benchmark now trades below that mark. KCM chief analyst Tim Waterer argued that oil would keep finding support on dips and stay prone to sharp moves on escalation headlines until the Gulf offers a credible path to safer, cheaper transit. The trade therefore runs on two clocks, one set by White House decisions and one by tanker attacks the midterms did not change. December is the near horizon: it is the window Goldman's target assumes, and the period in which either a deal or a renewed campaign would have to declare itself, with Iran's conditions still unanswered and Hochstein's warning on the record.