Brian Armstrong Revises Bitcoin (BTC) 2030 Forecast to $300K-$400K

Armstrong Cuts the 2030 Target

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has cut his long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price outlook, trimming a call he made when the asset traded about 30% higher. In August 2025, with BTC above $110,000, Armstrong argued on X that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, framing it at the time as a potential “next-generation world reserve currency.” This week he walked both claims back: in a follow-up post, he said $300,000 to $400,000 by 2030 is “very likely,” with the trajectory beyond that to be judged later — a 60-70% reduction of his own target, issued after the drawdown from 2025’s highs. He has also dropped the reserve-currency framing, and earlier this month called a year-end push to $100,000 “likely,” a test that resolves in roughly four months. For an executive whose exchange profits from sustained retail engagement, the retrenchment is a telling sentiment marker. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin traded between roughly $76,900 and $81,000 in our desk’s price tracking, leaving the market far below the levels that supported the original seven-figure scenario.

argued on Xhttps://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/1958259831577731159

CZ Doubles Down on Flipping Gold

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has moved the other way — toward bolder calls as price recovered. In October 2025 he said Bitcoin would “flip gold” with no timeline attached; this week, after BTC rallied 27% in two weeks, he tightened the claim, saying gold’s market cap gets flipped in the “next bull cycle.” On $1 million per coin, CZ now argues the milestone arrives well inside 25 years, having suggested earlier this summer it could happen within a decade. In May 2025 he floated a $500,000-$1,000,000 range for “this cycle,” again without dates. His record cuts both ways: in January, as Bitcoin fought to reclaim $90,000, he described a “very strong feeling” about a 2026 supercycle and called $200,000 a matter of time — then watched BTC break below $70,000 within weeks, and by June attributed the failed cycle to AI capital rotation, geopolitics and the four-year halving rhythm. Yet his December 2020 forecast that BTC would top $100,000 by December 2024 landed almost to the month, and his halving-based bull call for 2025 proved right as well.

The $73,880 Line Analysts Watch

Underneath the founder commentary, on-chain frameworks are converging on hard levels. Analyst Ali Martinez identifies $73,880 as the line defending the bullish case: the -0.5 band on Bitcoin’s MVRV pricing — a measure comparing market value against realized value — currently maps to roughly that price, and holding above it leaves $100,000 as the band’s next major target. Martinez also traces today’s structure back to the aftermath of the 2022 bear-market bottom: in 2023, once the long downtrend broke, Bitcoin retested the previous August peak, pulled back toward $20,000, then entered a sustained advance. The analogous zone now is the roughly $83,000 high printed in May 2026; rejection there, he argues, could shape the next significant buying opportunity. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson is more guarded. His MVRV Z-Score work — a gauge tracking positioning across whale and retail cohorts — shows three peaks in 2024-2025, milder euphoria than 2017, and a base in a zone resembling 2018’s 0.25-1.16 range, with the indicator recently lifting alongside price. The problem, in his view, is that it has not yet reached the negative territory historically tied to major cycle bottoms; if his conditions play out, BTC would need to revisit about $53,000 or lower first. In November 2018, few participants expected the slide to roughly $3,180. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bitget.

From $73,880 Support to $83,000 Resistance

The arc across this week’s Bitcoin coverage is one of conviction repricing in both directions: founders adjust narratives after price moves, while on-chain bands set fixed levels. Armstrong’s own posts — the primary documents behind the shift — show a $1 million target revised to $300,000-$400,000 only after a roughly 30% drawdown, a lag our desk thinks investors should discount rather than follow. The actionable map is tighter: hold $73,880 and the MVRV band targets $100,000; reject at $83,000 and Wedson’s framework keeps the bottom unconfirmed. Flows add to the caution — spot ETFs logged a $201.8 million outflow in the Aug 28 session — while longs already absorbed $155 million in 24-hour perpetual liquidations. For readers framing the cycle in bands, our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide explains the mechanics; anyone committed to a HODL strategy should note that neither signal confirms capitulation is finished.