Analyst Ali Maps 20% Downside for Cardano (ADA) After Rising Channel Breakdown

Four-Month Channel Gives Way

Cardano (ADA) closed out the week with its bullish structure broken. The rising parallel channel that had contained the token's price action since late June has now given way, a failure analyst Ali Charts flagged on October 24 in an update on X (channel breakdown post). A rising parallel channel is a bullish chart formation in which price climbs between two parallel diagonals: buyers push steadily higher while sellers take profit at the upper line, a rhythm typical of a maturing bull market. Formations like this cut both ways: for as long as the range holds they are constructive, but a confirmed break below the lower line often ends the sequence of higher lows that gave the uptrend its shape. The pattern's value lies in its discipline, since each higher low records where buyers stepped in and the lower boundary holds that sequence in place. When that boundary fails, the orderly handoff between buyers and sellers breaks down with it. Inside this one, Cardano (ADA) had climbed from $0.138 at the channel floor to $0.282 at its ceiling, an advance that stretched across nearly four months. The pressure had built through the week: the token gave back an earlier recovery attempt after a failed 50-day EMA reclaim, which left the channel's lower boundary as the last structural support standing. That line has now failed. In the analyst's reading, it opens the door to a deeper correction. His map places $0.220 at the center of the setup: while that level acts as resistance, ADA is exposed to a fall of roughly 20% toward $0.166. A move of that size would hand back most of the channel's four-month advance. The Cardano price currently sits near $0.21, about 4% lower over the past 24 hours.

@alicharts · X post

Channel breakdown post.

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The 100/100 Levels Around the Breakdown

Our Cardano technical analysis scoring lines up with that map at the ceiling: the $0.2202 resistance carries a 100/100 mark, the strongest on the board, while the nearest support underneath, at $0.2015, holds the same maximum score. That puts the market's first real test far closer than the $0.166 target. Momentum agrees on direction: the daily RSI reads 36.73, the MACD signal is bearish and the trend registers as a downtrend, conditions consistent with the early phase of a bear market. Positioning is the caveat. The perp funding rate sits at -0.0095%, mildly negative, yet a long/short account ratio of 2.15 shows leveraged accounts still leaning long. If $0.2015 gives way, that side would have to unwind, and the unwind is what could accelerate the move toward the lower targets.

Whale Wallets Stay Flat, SuperTrend Turns

Two secondary readings frame how much damage the breakdown can do. The first sits on-chain: whale wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion Cardano (ADA) have kept their balances flat for the past 10 days. Historically, shifts in that cohort's balances have tended to line up with major moves in Cardano's price, so the silence carries weight. The flat stretch covers the entire decline that began on October 21, which means large holders have neither distributed into weakness nor accumulated the dip. A rebound from current levels would therefore run without the accumulation signal dip buyers usually look for, a vacuum that tends to pull in FOMO buying, the kind that unwinds as fast as it builds. The second reading is the chart itself: the SuperTrend indicator, which follows trend direction and flips when momentum reverses, has turned bearish. Its previous bearish flip, printed on May 22, came before a 46% correction, a precedent the analyst cites as a warning rather than a promise. The scenario ladder attached to the call is specific: a decline to $0.21, the channel's lower boundary, comes first, and a daily close beneath it would confirm the breakdown, putting $0.17 in reach. Development on the Cardano ecosystem continues in parallel: a public Dijkstra testnet is now live, carrying testing forward for the network's next major upgrade on the proof-of-stake chain, work that runs regardless of the tape. The selling is not isolated: ADA is down 6.05% over the week amid a broader crypto market drop, and it has closed lower for three straight sessions. That condition dates back to October 21, and the channel high of $0.282 sits more than a quarter above the current quote, a measure of how much ground the past three days have given back.