Circle (CRCL) Q3 EPS Seen at $0.40 With USDC Growth in Focus

USDC Supply Sets Circle's Bar

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) reports third-quarter results before the market opens on Wednesday, November 4, with a webcast scheduled for 8 a.m. ET. Consensus estimates tracked by Zacks point to earnings per share of $0.40, down 37.5% from a year earlier, on revenue of $796.95 million. The print is the week's clearest test of whether USDC growth can outrun falling rates: Circle earns most of its revenue on the reserves backing the stablecoin.

Its Q2 results framed the tension. Reserve income rose 5% to $668 million as average USDC supply grew 25% year over year, while the rate of return on reserves dropped 66 basis points to 3.5%, wiping out most of that gain. Zacks expects Q3 revenue up 7.7% from a year earlier even as earnings fall. Circulating USDC totaled $73.3 billion at the end of June, and the September 30 balance anchors the base for fourth-quarter reserve income.

Circle's report sits inside a heavier week for crypto-linked earnings. Block (XYZ) reports on Tuesday, November 3, after the close, with its call at 5 p.m. ET and estimates of $1.02 in earnings per share on $6.63 billion of revenue. In its Q2 shareholder letter, Block showed $72 million of Bitcoin Ecosystem gross profit, a 31% year-over-year decline, against total gross profit of $3.17 billion. Bitcoin makes up about 2% of Block's profit, and Block marks its holdings to market each quarter, so the September 30 price flows into net income. A 6.15% one-day drop followed the August 6 session after Block's second-quarter beat and raised guidance, and the $1.02 estimate matches Block's own third-quarter guidance, so a simple hit may not lift the stock.

All three crypto-linked names closed lower on Friday, days after Binance disclosed a $6.3 billion hack. Circle fell 9.3% that session and finished at $72.54, 8.52% below its December 31 close. Screens built on the P/E ratio will look tighter if earnings land at the projected level.

Circle holds $73.84 on Monday in COINOTAG's live data, up 0.83% over 24 hours, clawing back part of Friday's slide. The daily composite scores the nearest support at $72.73 at 75 out of 100 and resistance at $77.44 at 98 out of 100, with the live price inside that scored range and closer to the floor. Momentum stays cautious: a daily RSI of 37.2, a bearish MACD signal and a daily downtrend, the same register sentiment trackers like the Crypto Fear and Greed Index are built to follow. In the crypto futures market tied to the stock, the perpetual funding rate sits at 0.0214% per interval against open interest of $133.8 million. A close above $77.44 would reset the near-term picture; losing $72.73 would frame any earnings reaction from a weaker base.

Riot Enters Its Call Down 36.43%

Riot Platforms (Riot)) reports the same morning, before the open on Wednesday, November 4, with its call at 8 a.m. ET. Consensus compiled by Zacks projects a loss of $0.24 per share. The reports all cover a July-to-September stretch when crypto prices climbed, which makes Riot's revenue line the sharper question: estimates put total revenue at $161.46 million, with mining contributing $112.85 million. Both figures sit below the $174.24 million Riot reported in the second quarter, and the mining estimate is down 29.8% from a year earlier, leaving the print to overcome a sequential drop and a steep year-over-year slide at once.

The stock has already absorbed much of the retreat in crypto prices. From September 30's $20.15 close, Riot shares lost 36.43% by Friday's $12.81 finish, yet the stock still trades 1.10% above its December 31 close, leaving 2026 roughly flat. According to TIKR, Wednesday marks Riot's first earnings call since the company publicized its data center lease letter of intent, which puts the call's data center commentary on the same footing as the mining numbers.

The week's reports follow a strong quarter for exchange operators. Coinbase posted a $718.7 million third-quarter profit last week, helped by gains on its crypto holdings. Block closed Friday at $76.22, 17.10% above its December 31 close, the strongest year-to-date position of the three names reporting this week. Block's Tuesday print, Circle's Wednesday webcast and Riot's morning call will show whether that rally also reached companies earning from payments, stablecoin reserves and mining.