Copper Holds Above $6.70 as Fed Hike Odds Fade

Fed Hold Odds Reach 80.6%

The copper price pushed back toward $6.80 per pound on Tuesday, leaving the metal about 2% below the record high it printed in September, with fading expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase doing much of the work. On the London Metal Exchange, one of the world's largest metals markets, prices rose 0.5% to around $6.63 per pound, a level that keeps the metal roughly 17% above where it started 2026. That year-to-date gain reflects how sharply tight supply and firm demand have repriced the metal this year. The rate backdrop is central to the move. The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in September, its first increase since 2023, lifting the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. Since then, the odds of a follow-up move have faded fast. CME FedWatch pricing shows an 80.6% probability that the central bank holds rates steady at its October 28 meeting, against a 19.4% chance of another hike. A hold would ease the cost-of-capital pressure that typically weighs on industrial metals when borrowing gets expensive. For a metal priced in dollars and consumed by heavy industry, the gap between another hike and a pause feeds straight into the next leg of the price action. The picture is not unanimous inside the Fed itself: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has said further increases before the end of 2026 are still possible. COINOTAG data shows the metal trading at $6.74 right now, down 0.41% over the past day within a $6.71 to $6.78 range. The next scheduled test falls on Wednesday, October 14, when the United States publishes its latest inflation figures. A hotter-than-expected print would strengthen the case for more tightening and could stall the metal below its September peak; a softer number would clear the path toward a fresh record.

El Teniente Mudslide Deepens Supply Strain

The mining side of the copper market keeps taking hits, and each one reinforces the climb that carried the metal to record territory in September. A mudslide struck the open pit at Codelco's El Teniente mine in Chile on Sunday, killing two contractor workers, and the Chilean state producer partially halted operations at the site, blaming heavy rainfall. El Teniente is the largest operation run by Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, and the same site suffered a collapse in July 2025 that claimed six miners' lives. The deaths mark the second fatal incident at the historic deposit in just over a year, a sequence that has kept Chilean output plans under strain. The Chilean losses sit on top of a wider list of outages stretching across South America and Indonesia. Escondida, the largest copper mine in the world, went through a brief halt in September, and its scale means even short interruptions register in a market this tight. The union at Antofagasta's Centinela mine has said its strike will weigh on output from November. In Indonesia, Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine is running at about 67% of normal capacity, and the company does not expect a full recovery before the end of 2027. Grasberg has been climbing back from the damage at a pace that still leaves a large hole in expected output. Morgan Stanley's read on this string of disruptions is a projected deficit of roughly 600,000 tons of copper this year, a shortfall that helped fuel the rally to September's record. The bank ties the gap directly to the run of outages at some of the industry's biggest operations. Longer-term demand adds another layer to the case. Ivan Bebek, chief executive of Coppernico Metals, argued in an October 11 post that copper demand could jump 50% by 2040 and that the world is not ready. He laid out the case for copper on Fox Business last week, calling it the most important metal for humanity.

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The case for copper.

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COINOTAG Composite Flags a $6.90 Ceiling

Our composite reading of the tape supports the record attempt while marking out the levels that will decide it. COINOTAG's scoring rates the $6.72 support at 87 out of 100 and the $6.90 resistance at 83 out of 100, so buyers must clear a well-defended ceiling before the September record near $6.95 comes into play. The 100-day moving average has absorbed every pullback since late June, a pattern the composite still respects. Momentum sits with buyers without overheating: the daily RSI reads 55, and perpetual open interest stands at $8.25 million. COINOTAG data shows the last price at $6.74, with the daily trend still an uptrend.