CryptoQuant Flags Weak Spot Demand After Bitcoin (BTC) Failed to Hold $80,000 for 5 Days

CryptoQuant Flags Weak Spot Demand

On November 4, the Bitcoin (BTC) price pushed above $81,000 in a brief spike, and the gain did not last: within five days the coin was back near $75,000. A report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, published on Monday, November 9, set out why. The market, the firm argued, never built the sustained spot buying that keeps rallies alive, and the wider Bitcoin (BTC) market ran on leverage instead. The latest leg up flushed roughly $290 million in short positions, following a stretch in which liquidations topped $1 billion across the market. Liquidations of that size clear the field mechanically, the report noted, and the buying they trigger comes from traders closing shorts, not from new capital. On its own, the analysis stressed, a squeeze is not enough to start a trend. Spot trading data pointed the same way, with the 30-day average net spot volume delta near minus $28 million on Binance and minus $9.4 million on Coinbase, so sales were still outrunning genuine accumulation on the two largest venues. A negative delta of that size means the average daily spot flow has been net selling for a month, the kind of base rallies need and this one did not have. CryptoQuant, which estimates real demand from exchange flows, holder cohorts and new supply, framed the move as a squeeze on top of a soft base rather than a demand-driven rally. Some large whale wallets may be accumulating, the analysis acknowledged, but transfers to exchanges or large wallet movements on their own do not prove fresh buying.

November 6 gave the demand argument its sharpest numbers. Short-term holders, the cohort most inclined to sell into weakness, moved about 32,695 Bitcoin (BTC) to exchanges that day while holding at a loss. The transfers do not prove direct sales, but they mark an overhang sitting ready on the market. ETF flow data showed money leaving United States spot Bitcoin funds on the same date: net outflows reached $411.9 million, of which about $403 million came from BlackRock's IBIT, the largest fund in the category. Liquidity waiting on the sidelines thinned at the same time, as stablecoin supply contracted roughly 4.9% over the trailing 30 days. Against that backdrop, the analysis pointed to two gauges it treats as decisive. The first, Apparent Demand Growth, measures how much BTC the market actually absorbs once new issuance and previously released coins are counted; its one-year trend has weakened and its 30-day reading has stayed negative. The second, the Coinbase Premium Index, compares Bitcoin's price on Coinbase with its price on Binance to gauge US investor appetite. The premium ran positive through much of the 2025 rally, turned negative for most of 2026, and stayed mostly negative even through the August and September recoveries. On that record, US-based buyers never supplied the spot bid that carried the 2025 market, and the November 4 spike ran on short covering instead. The failed hold above $80,000 leaves the coin inside the zone one risk-asset top warning from Mike McGlone circled. For a durable uptrend, the firm set three conditions: a recovery in 30-day apparent demand growth, a Coinbase Premium Index that turns and stays positive, and renewed net inflows into US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs. Those two gauges matter because they filter out the mechanical flows that headlines often mistake for demand.

Support at $73,938, Resistance at $75,877

Our live monitoring shows spot near $74,087, about 2.4% lower over 24 hours but flat since the report was published. Our Bitcoin technical analysis composite scores $73,938 as the strongest floor under the market at 100 out of 100, with the first overhead shelf at $75,877, scored 74. Positioning leans against that bearish map: open interest stands near $15.48 billion and the long/short account ratio reads 3.22, so accounts remain heavily long while the trend sits in a bear market and price trades beneath the 50-week moving average. The readings match the demand gap CryptoQuant described: squeezes lift the tape, then the bid thins. What would change the picture is net ETF flows turning positive and a Coinbase Premium Index that holds above zero, a condition that has not held for most of 2026.