Decentralised.co Sets 2029 Base Case for Hyperliquid (HYPE) at $128

30% of October Volume Was Non-Crypto

Roughly 30% of the volume traded on Hyperliquid (HYPE) in October sat outside crypto markets, and the share reached 40% in a single session on October 27. That is the core finding of a report published Thursday by the research firm Decentralised.co, which frames the shift as a structural change in how the venue is used rather than a passing spike. Non-crypto on the platform spans tokenized equities and other traditional-market contracts, including pre-IPO perpetual contracts on private companies, settled inside the venue's own infrastructure rather than on Wall Street rails. The trajectory is steep: the same report shows the non-crypto share at 0% in September 2025 and at a peak of 51% in July 2026, before it settled back near the 30% monthly mark. The HYPE price has drifted lower through the session. Tuesday's snapshot carried $7.2 billion in total volume, with non-crypto products taking 40% of it, and stocks finished as the largest single trading category, ahead of every crypto instrument on the book. The monthly and daily readings differ in scope: the 30% figure covers October to date, while the 40% print is a one-day reading from Tuesday. Part of the draw is hours, since equity-linked contracts on the venue keep trading after the cash sessions they reference close, and traders without access to US-listed products after the closing bell get that exposure through perps instead. For a platform that launched as a crypto-only order book, a third of volume arriving from outside the asset class within roughly a year is an unusually fast rotation, and it is the assumption the report's 2029 valuation scenarios are built on.

The $128 Base Case and Its Fee Math

Decentralised.co's base case runs to 2029 and stacks several assumptions on top of one another. Crypto volumes across the market are assumed to triple from current levels, and Hyperliquid is assumed to capture 3% of the world's futures and stock markets. That share implies the venue competing directly with incumbent futures venues rather than only with crypto-native rivals. On the cost side, the report assumes a blended fee of 0.006% on non-crypto trading, a 3.6% yield on USDC balances and $100 million in HIP-4 revenue, a protocol-level revenue line under the HIP-4 framework. Under those inputs, total revenue moves from a $944 million baseline to $4.91 billion by 2029. Applying valuation multiples of 40x and 30x produces a per-token market cap reading of $128 and $98 respectively. The sensitivity cuts the other way too: if non-crypto fees compress to the 0.0004% level typical of CME, the incumbent venue where regulated futures clear at scale, the 30x multiple yields just $66 per token. The gap between the $128 headline and that $66 floor is the fee debate in a single pair of numbers. None of these inputs is a market observation; each is a scenario choice the firm makes explicit. The competitive backdrop is the report's other caution. Rival crypto exchanges have moved into the same lane: Binance alone has rolled out 229 perpetual contracts tied to traditional financial assets this year, and its daily average volume in the category, $13.4 billion, runs well ahead of the $2.3 billion the report credits to Hyperliquid. Off-hours demand is already visible in venue data: about 66.5% of Trade.xyz perpetual trading over the past 90 days took place outside New York Stock Exchange regular hours. Infrastructure is arriving as well, with Kraken's parent Payward separately building a US perpetual futures market on Hyperliquid, and newer participants can work through our guide on how to trade on Hyperliquid.

What the Fee Assumption Decides

Our read: the report's valuation spread is narrower than it looks, because nearly every input moves together. The $128 case needs tripled volumes, a 3% global share and a fee that holds near 0.006%; the $66 case prices in CME-grade fee compression. HYPE still sits roughly 22% under its September peak near $77, and live monitoring shows the token about 3.8% lower over the past 24 hours, so the market has not priced in either outcome. Headline fees understate realized cost once slippage on thin off-hours books is counted. For level-by-level context, our Hyperliquid technical analysis page tracks where the token trades within its recent range. The variable to watch is the blended fee: if it holds near 0.006%, the base case stands; if competition forces it toward CME's 0.0004%, the $66 math takes over.